MSFT is OVERVALUED SecDiverAI
Median Fair Price 240.5
Confidence: MEDIUM
Fair Price Range 108.24 - 353.98
3 Year Price target: $ 267.03 - $ 436.71
Current Market Price: 414.2 as of 2024-09-10
Investment Value of 100 $ invested in MSFT as compared to Market Index: SPY across historical periods[*does not include dividends]
Investment Period $ Value Today(MSFT) $ Value Today(SPY) CAGR vs Market
9 years before $ 1030.73 $ 208.39 29.59% vs SPY:8.5%
5 years before $ 429.47 $ 150.37 33.84% vs SPY:8.5%
3 years before $ 191.22 $ 127.73 24.12% vs SPY:8.5%
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We have 3 report results for ticker: MSFT - Microsoft Corporation, also organized by 3 group tags below ... Bargain Finder: Related Companies Portfolio Health: Related Companies

Business Checklist for MSFT from SecDiver AI beta Free for Limited Time

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Red Flags Identified


0

Total Checks Done


11

Wall Street Drivers beta

📊 Professional Investors(wallstreet) pay a lot of heed at these numbers, long term history matters - specially 9+ year trends
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • revenue cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['10.32 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which grow >= 5% YoY, better than GDP growth of >= 2-3%
  • operating profits cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['13.69 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which generate operating profits >= 5% YoY
  • shares outstanding cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['-1.31 is less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: As a business owner equity is important, We want less dilution over years OR it should reduce so our share of business increases with time, less than 2% is ideal, >=10% is potentially bad be careful
  • net profits cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['14.57 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which generate net profits >= 5% YoY

Business Durability beta

🏰 Quality companies with moats show higher or stable trends, long term trends matters, Consistency is the Key
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • margin operating running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.42 wrt mean ratio: 0.33']
  • margin net running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.36 wrt mean ratio: 0.264']

Business Trends last 3 years beta

Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • sales and marketing running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.11 wrt mean ratio: 0.152']
  • mental_model: Sales are marketing increases specially if its a Sales led growth Be Careful, With time you want Organic Growth and Customer Retention
  • research & development running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is stable, last 3 year ratio: 0.13 wrt mean ratio: 0.13']
  • mental_model: Rnd is good specially when company is increasing moat but be careful with the spend, typically RND spend shows up 2-3 years, Read Annual statements to understand why this RND is increasing

Profits Matter beta

💰 Companies needs to have positive profits to reward its shareholders in the long term
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • positive operating profits average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['80607333333.33 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We want to see positive operating profits for last 3 years, Profits determine Stock prices in the long term
  • positive net profits average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['68790000000.0 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We want to see positive net profits for last 3 years, GAAP net Profits determine Stock prices in the long term

Business Performance beta

Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • Operating Leverage cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [1.33] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 13.69, value_2: 10.32']

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We do NOT feel in CONTROL in the markets. Do we know why?

1. Showing INCOME_SUMMARY report for MSFT [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 414.2 as of 2024-09-10
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
MSFT revenue 211.91B 198.27B 168.09B 143.01B 125.84B 110.36B 96.57B 91.15B 93.58B 86.83B 77.85B 73.72B
MSFT netincome 72.36B 72.74B 61.27B 44.28B 39.24B 16.57B 25.49B 20.54B 12.19B 22.07B 21.86B 16.98B
MSFT operatingincome 88.52B 83.38B 69.92B 52.96B 42.96B 35.06B 29.02B 26.08B 18.16B 27.76B 26.76B 21.76B
MSFT grossincome 146.05B 135.62B 115.86B 96.94B 82.93B 72.01B 62.31B 58.37B 60.54B 59.90B 57.60B 56.19B
MSFT shares 7.47B 7.54B 7.61B 7.61B 7.67B 7.70B 7.75B 7.92B 8.18B 8.40B 8.47B 8.51B
MSFT shares_calc 7.43B 7.45B 7.66B 7.56B 7.63B 7.68B 7.70B 7.78B 7.99B 8.40B 8.47B 8.51B
MSFT margin_op 41.77% 42.06% 41.59% 37.03% 34.14% 31.77% 30.06% 28.61% 19.41% 31.97% 34.38% 29.52%
MSFT margin_net 34.15% 36.69% 36.45% 30.96% 31.18% 15.02% 26.39% 22.53% 13.03% 25.42% 28.08% 23.03%
MSFT costs:ga 7.58B 5.90B 5.11B 5.11B 4.88B 4.75B 4.48B 4.56B 4.61B 4.82B 5.15B 4.57B
MSFT costs:rnd 27.20B 24.51B 20.72B 19.27B 16.88B 14.73B 13.04B 11.99B 12.05B 11.38B 10.41B 9.81B
MSFT costs:sm 22.76B 21.82B 20.12B 19.60B 18.21B 17.47B 15.54B 14.70B 15.71B 15.81B 15.28B 13.86B
MSFT costs:sgna 7.58B 5.90B 5.11B 5.11B 4.88B 4.75B 4.48B 4.56B 4.61B 4.82B 5.15B 4.57B
MSFT margin_gross 68.92% 68.40% 68.93% 67.78% 65.90% 65.25% 64.52% 64.04% 64.70% 68.98% 73.99% 76.22%
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

2. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to shares_calc for MSFT [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 414.2 as of 2024-09-10
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
MSFT revenue 28.51 26.60 21.95 18.92 16.50 14.37 12.54 11.72 11.72 10.34 9.19 8.67
MSFT netincome 9.74 9.76 8.00 5.86 5.14 2.16 3.31 2.64 1.53 2.63 2.58 2.00
MSFT operatingincome 11.91 11.19 9.13 7.00 5.63 4.57 3.77 3.35 2.27 3.31 3.16 2.56
MSFT grossincome 19.65 18.19 15.13 12.82 10.87 9.38 8.09 7.51 7.58 7.13 6.80 6.61
MSFT shares 1.01 1.01 0.99 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.00
MSFT shares_calc 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
MSFT costs:ga 1.02 0.79 0.67 0.68 0.64 0.62 0.58 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.61 0.54
MSFT costs:rnd 3.66 3.29 2.70 2.55 2.21 1.92 1.69 1.54 1.51 1.36 1.23 1.15
MSFT costs:sm 3.06 2.93 2.63 2.59 2.39 2.28 2.02 1.89 1.97 1.88 1.80 1.63
MSFT costs:sgna 1.02 0.79 0.67 0.68 0.64 0.62 0.58 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.61 0.54
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

3. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to revenue for MSFT [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 414.2 as of 2024-09-10
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
MSFT revenue 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
MSFT netincome 34.15% 36.69% 36.45% 30.96% 31.18% 15.02% 26.39% 22.53% 13.03% 25.42% 28.08% 23.03%
MSFT operatingincome 41.77% 42.06% 41.59% 37.03% 34.14% 31.77% 30.06% 28.61% 19.41% 31.97% 34.38% 29.52%
MSFT grossincome 68.92% 68.40% 68.93% 67.78% 65.90% 65.25% 64.52% 64.04% 64.70% 68.98% 73.99% 76.22%
MSFT shares 3.53% 3.80% 4.53% 5.32% 6.10% 6.98% 8.02% 8.69% 8.74% 9.67% 10.88% 11.54%
MSFT shares_calc 3.51% 3.76% 4.56% 5.29% 6.06% 6.96% 7.97% 8.53% 8.54% 9.67% 10.88% 11.54%
MSFT costs:ga 3.57% 2.98% 3.04% 3.57% 3.88% 4.31% 4.64% 5.01% 4.93% 5.55% 6.61% 6.20%
MSFT costs:rnd 12.83% 12.36% 12.32% 13.47% 13.41% 13.34% 13.50% 13.15% 12.87% 13.11% 13.37% 13.31%
MSFT costs:sm 10.74% 11.01% 11.97% 13.70% 14.47% 15.83% 16.09% 16.12% 16.79% 18.21% 19.62% 18.80%
MSFT costs:sgna 3.57% 2.98% 3.04% 3.57% 3.88% 4.31% 4.64% 5.01% 4.93% 5.55% 6.61% 6.20%
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)


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