MSFT is OVERVALUED SecDiverAI
Median Fair Price 240.5
Confidence: MEDIUM
Fair Price Range 108.24 - 353.98
3 Year Price target: $ 267.03 - $ 436.71
Current Market Price: 414.2 as of 2024-09-10
Investment Value of 100 $ invested in MSFT as compared to Market Index: SPY across historical periods[*does not include dividends]
Investment Period $ Value Today(MSFT) $ Value Today(SPY) CAGR vs Market
9 years before $ 1030.73 $ 208.39 29.59% vs SPY:8.5%
5 years before $ 429.47 $ 150.37 33.84% vs SPY:8.5%
3 years before $ 191.22 $ 127.73 24.12% vs SPY:8.5%
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We have 4 report results for ticker: MSFT - Microsoft Corporation, also organized by 4 group tags below ... Bargain Finder: Related Companies Portfolio Health: Related Companies

Business Checklist for MSFT from SecDiver AI beta Free for Limited Time

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Red Flags Identified


4

Total Checks Done


29

Wall Street Drivers beta

📊 Professional Investors(wallstreet) pay a lot of heed at these numbers, long term history matters - specially 9+ year trends
Score 9.0 / 10.0

  • revenue cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['10.32 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which grow >= 5% YoY, better than GDP growth of >= 2-3%
  • cashflows cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['11.78 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which generate cashflows >= 5% YoY, for some industries like finance specially Banks this might be lower/red and its OK for them
  • shares outstanding cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['-1.31 is less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: As a business owner equity is important, We want less dilution over years OR it should reduce so our share of business increases with time, less than 2% is ideal, >=10% is potentially bad be careful
  • debt cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['15.56 is less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business with lower debt growth
  • equity cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['9.16 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business having shareholder equity growth >= 5% YoY
  • leverage average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['0.81 is less than equal to 5', '0.81 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business which can pay their debts in less than 5 years, for some industries like finance specially Banks this might be lower/red and its OK for them
  • roe_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['60.06 is greater than equal to 10']
  • mental_model: Good Business have return on equity >= 10%
  • roce_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['39.88 is greater than equal to 15']
  • mental_model: Good Business have return on capital >= 15%
  • roic_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['102.09 is greater than equal to 15']
  • mental_model: Good Business have return on invested capital >= 15%

Business Durability beta

🏰 Quality companies with moats show higher or stable trends, long term trends matters, Consistency is the Key
Score 8.0 / 10.0

  • margin cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.44 wrt mean ratio: 0.397']
  • cash average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 20953000000.0 wrt mean ratio: 10974740740.741']
  • mental_model: We want stability on cash growth
  • roa_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 25.38 wrt mean ratio: 21.064']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on assets
  • roe_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 60.06 wrt mean ratio: 53.608']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on equity
  • roce_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 39.88 wrt mean ratio: 33.761']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on capital employed
  • roic_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 102.09 wrt mean ratio: 111.394']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on invested capital

Business Trends last 3 years beta

Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • receivables running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is stable, last 3 year ratio: 0.23 wrt mean ratio: 0.223']
  • mental_model: receivables should always grow less with revenues otherwise there might be some payment/collection issues, Watch out
  • inventory running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.02 wrt mean ratio: 0.023']
  • mental_model: inventory should always grow in relation with revenues, Inventory build can be positive depending on the industry cycle, but mostly it could be a CON as working capital is tied up, Be Careful
  • payables running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.09 wrt mean ratio: 0.08']
  • mental_model: the more this is the better, nothing bad about it.
  • cash running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.11 wrt mean ratio: 0.087']
  • mental_model: cash trend should be similar or greater to revenue, if company is heavily reinvesting it might be OK, but do check

Profits Matter beta

💰 Companies needs to have positive profits to reward its shareholders in the long term
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • positive cashflows profits average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['84452333333.33 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We want to see positive cashflows profits for last 3 years, Profits determine Stock prices in the long term

Capital Allocation beta

🧠 Remember: Shareholders only gets rewarded if management does prudent capital allocation decisions
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • cashToRevenue running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.11 wrt mean ratio: 0.087']
  • cashToEquity running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.12 wrt mean ratio: 0.101']

Business Performance beta

Score 5.0 / 10.0

  • Operating Leverage Cashflow cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [1.14] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 11.78, value_2: 10.32']
  • debt cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [1.51] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 1, value_1: 15.56, value_2: 10.32']
  • cash cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [1.76] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 16.09, value_2: 9.16']
  • debt-equity-cagr cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [1.7] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 1, value_1: 15.56, value_2: 9.16']
  • mental_model: We want debt to grow less than equity

Balance Sheet Quality beta

📈 Quality companies can withstand darkest hours, strong balance sheet is the key
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • debtToCashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.81 wrt mean ratio: 1.199']
  • debtToEquity running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.4 wrt mean ratio: 0.569']
  • leverage average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['0.81 is less than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business which can pay their debts in less than 5 years

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We do NOT feel in CONTROL in the markets. Do we know why?

1. Showing BALANCE_SUMMARY report for MSFT [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 414.2 as of 2024-09-10
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
MSFT StockMarketPrice 374.58 237.71 330.27 216.60 151.97 96.45 79.85 56.74 49.30 40.18 31.50 21.83
MSFT revenue 211.91B 198.27B 168.09B 143.01B 125.84B 110.36B 96.57B 91.15B 93.58B 86.83B 77.85B 73.72B
MSFT assets 411.98B 364.84B 333.78B 301.31B 286.56B 258.85B 250.31B 193.69B 176.22B 172.38B 142.43B 0.0
MSFT cash 34.70B 13.93B 14.22B 13.58B 11.36B 11.95B 7.66B 6.51B 5.59B 8.67B 3.80B 0.0
MSFT cashflow::operating 87.58B 89.03B 76.74B 60.67B 52.19B 43.88B 39.51B 33.33B 29.67B 32.50B 28.83B 31.63B
MSFT equity 206.22B 166.54B 141.99B 118.30B 102.33B 82.72B 87.71B 72.00B 80.08B 89.78B 78.94B 0.0
MSFT debt 47.24B 99.56B 58.15B 63.33B 72.18B 76.24B 77.12B 44.78B 30.31B 23.14B 15.60B 0.0
MSFT shares 7.47B 7.54B 7.61B 7.61B 7.67B 7.70B 7.75B 7.92B 8.18B 8.40B 8.47B 8.51B
MSFT shares_calc 7.43B 7.45B 7.66B 7.56B 7.63B 7.68B 7.70B 7.78B 7.99B 8.40B 8.47B 8.51B
MSFT inventory 2.50B 3.74B 2.64B 1.90B 2.06B 2.66B 2.18B 2.25B 2.90B 2.66B 1.94B 0.0
MSFT payables 18.09B 19.00B 15.16B 12.53B 9.38B 8.62B 7.39B 6.90B 6.59B 7.43B 4.83B 0.0
MSFT receivables 48.69B 44.26B 38.04B 32.01B 29.52B 26.48B 22.43B 18.28B 17.91B 19.54B 17.49B 0.0
MSFT roa_cfo 24.01% 26.67% 25.47% 21.17% 20.16% 17.53% 20.40% 18.91% 17.21% 22.82% 0.0 0.0
MSFT roe_cfo 52.59% 62.71% 64.87% 59.29% 63.09% 50.03% 54.87% 41.61% 33.04% 41.17% 0.0 0.0
MSFT roce_cfo 32.91% 44.49% 42.25% 34.77% 32.83% 26.62% 33.83% 30.19% 26.27% 34.38% 0.0 0.0
MSFT roic_cfo 84.70% 104.46% 117.11% 103.40% 104.40% 107.15% 123.51% 115.11% 106.78% 132.19% 117.27% inf
MSFT goodwill 67.89B 67.52B 49.71B 43.35B 42.03B 35.68B 35.12B 17.87B 16.94B 20.13B 14.65B 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

2. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to shares_calc for MSFT [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 414.2 as of 2024-09-10
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
MSFT StockMarketPrice
MSFT revenue 28.51 26.60 21.95 18.92 16.50 14.37 12.54 11.72 11.72 10.34 9.19 8.67
MSFT assets 55.43 48.94 43.58 39.85 37.56 33.72 32.51 24.91 22.06 20.52 16.82 0.0
MSFT cash 4.67 1.87 1.86 1.80 1.49 1.56 1.00 0.84 0.70 1.03 0.45 0.0
MSFT cashflow::operating 11.78 11.94 10.02 8.03 6.84 5.72 5.13 4.29 3.71 3.87 3.40 3.72
MSFT equity 27.75 22.34 18.54 15.65 13.41 10.77 11.39 9.26 10.03 10.69 9.32 0.0
MSFT debt 6.36 13.36 7.59 8.38 9.46 9.93 10.02 5.76 3.79 2.76 1.84 0.0
MSFT shares 1.01 1.01 0.99 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.00
MSFT shares_calc 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
MSFT inventory 0.34 0.50 0.34 0.25 0.27 0.35 0.28 0.29 0.36 0.32 0.23 0.0
MSFT payables 2.43 2.55 1.98 1.66 1.23 1.12 0.96 0.89 0.83 0.88 0.57 0.0
MSFT receivables 6.55 5.94 4.97 4.23 3.87 3.45 2.91 2.35 2.24 2.33 2.06 0.0
MSFT goodwill 9.13 9.06 6.49 5.73 5.51 4.65 4.56 2.30 2.12 2.40 1.73 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

3. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to revenue for MSFT [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 414.2 as of 2024-09-10
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
MSFT StockMarketPrice
MSFT revenue 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
MSFT assets 194.41% 184.01% 198.57% 210.68% 227.71% 234.55% 259.20% 212.49% 188.31% 198.52% 182.96% 0.0
MSFT cash 16.38% 7.03% 8.46% 9.49% 9.02% 10.82% 7.94% 7.14% 5.98% 9.98% 4.89% 0.0
MSFT cashflow::operating 41.33% 44.91% 45.65% 42.43% 41.47% 39.76% 40.91% 36.56% 31.70% 37.43% 37.04% 42.90%
MSFT equity 97.31% 84.00% 84.47% 82.72% 81.32% 74.95% 90.83% 78.98% 85.58% 103.40% 101.41% 0.0
MSFT debt 22.29% 50.22% 34.59% 44.28% 57.36% 69.08% 79.86% 49.13% 32.39% 26.65% 20.04% 0.0
MSFT shares 3.53% 3.80% 4.53% 5.32% 6.10% 6.98% 8.02% 8.69% 8.74% 9.67% 10.88% 11.54%
MSFT shares_calc 3.51% 3.76% 4.56% 5.29% 6.06% 6.96% 7.97% 8.53% 8.54% 9.67% 10.88% 11.54%
MSFT inventory 1.18% 1.89% 1.57% 1.33% 1.64% 2.41% 2.26% 2.47% 3.10% 3.06% 2.49% 0.0
MSFT payables 8.54% 9.58% 9.02% 8.76% 7.46% 7.81% 7.65% 7.57% 7.04% 8.56% 6.20% 0.0
MSFT receivables 22.98% 22.32% 22.63% 22.38% 23.46% 24.00% 23.23% 20.05% 19.14% 22.51% 22.46% 0.0
MSFT goodwill 32.03% 34.06% 29.57% 30.31% 33.40% 32.33% 36.37% 19.61% 18.10% 23.18% 18.82% 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

4. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to assets for MSFT [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 414.2 as of 2024-09-10
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
MSFT StockMarketPrice
MSFT revenue 51.44% 54.34% 50.36% 47.46% 43.92% 42.64% 38.58% 47.06% 53.10% 50.37% 54.66%
MSFT assets 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
MSFT cash 8.42% 3.82% 4.26% 4.51% 3.96% 4.62% 3.06% 3.36% 3.17% 5.03% 2.67%
MSFT cashflow::operating 21.26% 24.40% 22.99% 20.14% 18.21% 16.95% 15.78% 17.20% 16.84% 18.85% 20.24%
MSFT equity 50.06% 45.65% 42.54% 39.26% 35.71% 31.96% 35.04% 37.17% 45.44% 52.08% 55.43%
MSFT debt 11.47% 27.29% 17.42% 21.02% 25.19% 29.45% 30.81% 23.12% 17.20% 13.43% 10.95%
MSFT shares 1.81% 2.07% 2.28% 2.53% 2.68% 2.97% 3.09% 4.09% 4.64% 4.87% 5.95%
MSFT shares_calc 1.80% 2.04% 2.29% 2.51% 2.66% 2.97% 3.08% 4.01% 4.53% 4.87% 5.95%
MSFT inventory 0.61% 1.03% 0.79% 0.63% 0.72% 1.03% 0.87% 1.16% 1.65% 1.54% 1.36%
MSFT payables 4.39% 5.21% 4.54% 4.16% 3.27% 3.33% 2.95% 3.56% 3.74% 4.31% 3.39%
MSFT receivables 11.82% 12.13% 11.40% 10.62% 10.30% 10.23% 8.96% 9.44% 10.16% 11.34% 12.28%
MSFT goodwill 16.48% 18.51% 14.89% 14.39% 14.67% 13.79% 14.03% 9.23% 9.61% 11.68% 10.29%
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)


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