MSFT is OVERVALUED SecDiverAI
Median Fair Price 240.5
Confidence: MEDIUM
Fair Price Range 108.24 - 353.98
3 Year Price target: $ 267.03 - $ 436.71
Current Market Price: 414.2 as of 2024-09-10
Investment Value of 100 $ invested in MSFT as compared to Market Index: SPY across historical periods[*does not include dividends]
Investment Period $ Value Today(MSFT) $ Value Today(SPY) CAGR vs Market
9 years before $ 1030.73 $ 208.39 29.59% vs SPY:8.5%
5 years before $ 429.47 $ 150.37 33.84% vs SPY:8.5%
3 years before $ 191.22 $ 127.73 24.12% vs SPY:8.5%
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We have 3 report results for ticker: MSFT - Microsoft Corporation, also organized by 3 group tags below ... Bargain Finder: Related Companies Portfolio Health: Related Companies

Business Checklist for MSFT from SecDiver AI beta Free for Limited Time

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Red Flags Identified


4

Total Checks Done


12

Wall Street Drivers beta

📊 Professional Investors(wallstreet) pay a lot of heed at these numbers, long term history matters - specially 9+ year trends
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • revenue cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['10.32 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which grow >= 5% YoY, better than GDP growth of >= 2-3%
  • cashflows cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['11.78 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which generate cashflows >= 5% YoY, for some industries like finance specially Banks this might be lower/red and its OK for them
  • shares outstanding cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['-1.31 is less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: As a business owner equity is important, We want less dilution over years OR it should reduce so our share of business increases with time, less than 2% is ideal, >=10% is potentially bad be careful

Business Durability beta

🏰 Quality companies with moats show higher or stable trends, long term trends matters, Consistency is the Key
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • margin cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.44 wrt mean ratio: 0.397']

Business Trends last 3 years beta

Score 0.0 / 10.0

  • capex running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.13 wrt mean ratio: 0.092']

Profits Matter beta

💰 Companies needs to have positive profits to reward its shareholders in the long term
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • positive cashflows profits average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['84452333333.33 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We want to see positive cashflows profits for last 3 years, Profits determine Stock prices in the long term

Capital Allocation beta

🧠 Remember: Shareholders only gets rewarded if management does prudent capital allocation decisions
Score 4.0 / 10.0

  • capex to Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.29 wrt mean ratio: 0.229']
  • depreciation to capex running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.55 wrt mean ratio: 0.838']
  • mental_model: Helps understand where the company is investing for the future, OR it has to replenish its assets to maintain business
  • stock based compensation to Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.09 wrt mean ratio: 0.083']
  • dividend distribution to Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: -0.21 wrt mean ratio: -0.268']
  • shares_buyback distribution of Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is stable, last 3 year ratio: -0.32 wrt mean ratio: -0.334']

Business Performance beta

Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • Operating Leverage Cashflow cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [1.14] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 11.78, value_2: 10.32']

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1. Showing CASHFLOW_SUMMARY report for MSFT [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 414.2 as of 2024-09-10
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
MSFT revenue 211.91B 198.27B 168.09B 143.01B 125.84B 110.36B 96.57B 91.15B 93.58B 86.83B 77.85B 73.72B
MSFT cashflow::operating 87.58B 89.03B 76.74B 60.67B 52.19B 43.88B 39.51B 33.33B 29.67B 32.50B 28.83B 31.63B
MSFT shares 7.47B 7.54B 7.61B 7.61B 7.67B 7.70B 7.75B 7.92B 8.18B 8.40B 8.47B 8.51B
MSFT shares_calc 7.43B 7.45B 7.66B 7.56B 7.63B 7.68B 7.70B 7.78B 7.99B 8.40B 8.47B 8.51B
MSFT sbc 9.61B 7.50B 6.12B 5.29B 4.65B 3.94B 3.27B 2.67B 2.57B 2.45B 2.41B 2.24B
MSFT capex 28.11B 23.89B 20.62B 15.44B 13.93B 11.63B 8.13B 8.34B 5.94B 5.49B 4.26B 2.31B
MSFT depreciation 13.86B 14.46B 11.69B 12.80B 11.68B 10.26B 8.78B 6.62B 5.96B 5.21B 3.75B 2.97B
MSFT margin_cfo 41.33% 44.91% 45.65% 42.43% 41.47% 39.76% 40.91% 36.56% 31.70% 37.43% 37.04% 42.90%
MSFT shares_buyback -22.25B -32.70B -27.39B -22.97B -19.54B -10.72B -11.79B -15.97B -14.44B -7.32B -5.36B -5.03B
MSFT dividends -19.80B -18.14B -16.52B -15.14B -13.81B -12.70B -11.85B -11.01B -9.88B -8.88B -7.46B -6.38B
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

2. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to shares_calc for MSFT [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 414.2 as of 2024-09-10
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
MSFT revenue 28.51 26.60 21.95 18.92 16.50 14.37 12.54 11.72 11.72 10.34 9.19 8.67
MSFT cashflow::operating 11.78 11.94 10.02 8.03 6.84 5.72 5.13 4.29 3.71 3.87 3.40 3.72
MSFT shares 1.01 1.01 0.99 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.00
MSFT shares_calc 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
MSFT sbc 1.29 1.01 0.80 0.70 0.61 0.51 0.42 0.34 0.32 0.29 0.28 0.26
MSFT capex 3.78 3.20 2.69 2.04 1.83 1.52 1.06 1.07 0.74 0.65 0.50 0.27
MSFT depreciation 1.86 1.94 1.53 1.69 1.53 1.34 1.14 0.85 0.75 0.62 0.44 0.35
MSFT shares_buyback -2.99 -4.39 -3.58 -3.04 -2.56 -1.40 -1.53 -2.05 -1.81 -0.87 -0.63 -0.59
MSFT dividends -2.66 -2.43 -2.16 -2.00 -1.81 -1.65 -1.54 -1.42 -1.24 -1.06 -0.88 -0.75
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

3. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to revenue for MSFT [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 414.2 as of 2024-09-10
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
MSFT revenue 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
MSFT cashflow::operating 41.33% 44.91% 45.65% 42.43% 41.47% 39.76% 40.91% 36.56% 31.70% 37.43% 37.04% 42.90%
MSFT shares 3.53% 3.80% 4.53% 5.32% 6.10% 6.98% 8.02% 8.69% 8.74% 9.67% 10.88% 11.54%
MSFT shares_calc 3.51% 3.76% 4.56% 5.29% 6.06% 6.96% 7.97% 8.53% 8.54% 9.67% 10.88% 11.54%
MSFT sbc 4.54% 3.78% 3.64% 3.70% 3.70% 3.57% 3.38% 2.93% 2.75% 2.82% 3.09% 3.04%
MSFT capex 13.26% 12.05% 12.27% 10.80% 11.07% 10.54% 8.42% 9.15% 6.35% 6.32% 5.47% 3.13%
MSFT depreciation 6.54% 7.29% 6.95% 8.95% 9.28% 9.30% 9.09% 7.26% 6.37% 6.00% 4.82% 4.02%
MSFT shares_buyback -10.50% -16.49% -16.29% -16.06% -15.53% -9.71% -12.21% -17.52% -15.43% -8.43% -6.89% -6.82%
MSFT dividends -9.34% -9.15% -9.83% -10.58% -10.97% -11.51% -12.27% -12.07% -10.56% -10.23% -9.58% -8.66%
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)


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