AAPL is OVERVALUED SecDiverAI
Median Fair Price 54.62
Confidence: MEDIUM
Fair Price Range 51.77 - 182.06
3 Year Price target: $ 22.88 - $ 71.16
Current Market Price: 226.21 as of 2024-10-01
Investment Value of 100 $ invested in AAPL as compared to Market Index: SPY across historical periods[*does not include dividends]
Investment Period $ Value Today(AAPL) $ Value Today(SPY) CAGR vs Market
9 years before $ 915.87 $ 208.39 27.9% vs SPY:8.5%
5 years before $ 597.55 $ 150.37 42.98% vs SPY:8.5%
3 years before $ 173.49 $ 127.73 20.16% vs SPY:8.5%
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We have 3 report results for ticker: AAPL - Apple Inc, also organized by 3 group tags below ... Bargain Finder: Related Companies Portfolio Health: Related Companies

Business Checklist for AAPL from SecDiver AI beta Free for Limited Time

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Red Flags Identified


3

Total Checks Done


12

Wall Street Drivers beta

📊 Professional Investors(wallstreet) pay a lot of heed at these numbers, long term history matters - specially 9+ year trends
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • revenue cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['9.4 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which grow >= 5% YoY, better than GDP growth of >= 2-3%
  • cashflows cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['8.31 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which generate cashflows >= 5% YoY, for some industries like finance specially Banks this might be lower/red and its OK for them
  • shares outstanding cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['-4.64 is less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: As a business owner equity is important, We want less dilution over years OR it should reduce so our share of business increases with time, less than 2% is ideal, >=10% is potentially bad be careful

Business Durability beta

🏰 Quality companies with moats show higher or stable trends, long term trends matters, Consistency is the Key
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • margin cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is stable, last 3 year ratio: 0.29 wrt mean ratio: 0.305']

Business Trends last 3 years beta

Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • capex running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.03 wrt mean ratio: 0.043']

Profits Matter beta

💰 Companies needs to have positive profits to reward its shareholders in the long term
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • positive cashflows profits average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['112244000000.0 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We want to see positive cashflows profits for last 3 years, Profits determine Stock prices in the long term

Capital Allocation beta

🧠 Remember: Shareholders only gets rewarded if management does prudent capital allocation decisions
Score 6.0 / 10.0

  • capex to Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.1 wrt mean ratio: 0.144']
  • depreciation to capex running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 1.04 wrt mean ratio: 0.884']
  • mental_model: Helps understand where the company is investing for the future, OR it has to replenish its assets to maintain business
  • stock based compensation to Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.08 wrt mean ratio: 0.062']
  • dividend distribution to Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: -0.13 wrt mean ratio: -0.02']
  • shares_buyback distribution of Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: -0.75 wrt mean ratio: -0.708']

Business Performance beta

Score 0.0 / 10.0

  • Operating Leverage Cashflow cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [0.88] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 8.31, value_2: 9.4']

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We do NOT feel in CONTROL in the markets. Do we know why?

1. Showing CASHFLOW_SUMMARY report for AAPL [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 226.21 as of 2024-10-01
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
AAPL revenue 383.29B 394.33B 365.82B 274.51B 260.17B 265.60B 229.23B 215.64B 233.72B 182.79B 170.91B 156.51B 108.25B 65.22B
AAPL cashflow::operating 110.54B 122.15B 104.04B 80.67B 69.39B 77.43B 64.22B 66.23B 81.27B 59.71B 53.67B 50.86B 37.53B 18.59B
AAPL shares 15.81B 16.33B 16.86B 17.53B 18.60B 20.00B 5.25B 5.50B 5.79B 6.12B 6.52B 6.54B 0.92B 0.91B
AAPL shares_calc 15.55B 15.91B 16.41B 17.00B 17.00B 18.16B 19.76B 20.40B 21.33B 23.43B 24.95B 25.04B 25.04B 24.64B
AAPL sbc 10.83B 9.04B 7.91B 6.83B 6.07B 5.34B 4.84B 4.21B 3.59B 2.86B 2.25B 1.74B 1.17B 0.88B
AAPL capex 10.96B 10.71B 11.09B 7.31B 10.49B 13.31B 12.45B 12.73B 11.25B 9.57B 8.16B 8.29B 4.26B 2.00B
AAPL depreciation 11.52B 11.10B 11.28B 11.06B 12.55B 10.90B 10.16B 10.51B 11.26B 7.95B 6.76B 3.28B 1.81B 1.03B
AAPL margin_cfo 28.84% 30.98% 28.44% 29.39% 26.67% 29.15% 28.02% 30.71% 34.77% 32.67% 31.40% 32.49% 34.67% 28.51%
AAPL shares_buyback -77.55B -89.40B -85.97B -72.36B -66.90B -72.74B -32.90B -29.72B -35.25B -45.00B -22.86B 0.0 0.0 0.0
AAPL dividends -15.03B -14.84B -14.47B -14.08B 14.12B 13.71B 12.77B 12.15B -11.56B -11.13B -10.56B -2.49B 0.0 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

2. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to shares_calc for AAPL [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 226.21 as of 2024-10-01
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
AAPL revenue 24.64 24.79 22.30 16.15 15.30 14.63 11.60 10.57 10.96 7.80 6.85 6.25 4.32 2.65
AAPL cashflow::operating 7.11 7.68 6.34 4.75 4.08 4.26 3.25 3.25 3.81 2.55 2.15 2.03 1.50 0.75
AAPL shares 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.09 1.10 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.04 0.04
AAPL shares_calc 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
AAPL sbc 0.70 0.57 0.48 0.40 0.36 0.29 0.24 0.21 0.17 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.04
AAPL capex 0.70 0.67 0.68 0.43 0.62 0.73 0.63 0.62 0.53 0.41 0.33 0.33 0.17 0.08
AAPL depreciation 0.74 0.70 0.69 0.65 0.74 0.60 0.51 0.51 0.53 0.34 0.27 0.13 0.07 0.04
AAPL shares_buyback -4.99 -5.62 -5.24 -4.26 -3.93 -4.01 -1.66 -1.46 -1.65 -1.92 -0.92 0.0 0.0 0.0
AAPL dividends -0.97 -0.93 -0.88 -0.83 0.83 0.76 0.65 0.60 -0.54 -0.47 -0.42 -0.10 0.0 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

3. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to revenue for AAPL [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 226.21 as of 2024-10-01
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
AAPL revenue 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
AAPL cashflow::operating 28.84% 30.98% 28.44% 29.39% 26.67% 29.15% 28.02% 30.71% 34.77% 32.67% 31.40% 32.49% 34.67% 28.51%
AAPL shares 4.13% 4.14% 4.61% 6.39% 7.15% 7.53% 2.29% 2.55% 2.48% 3.35% 3.82% 4.18% 0.85% 1.39%
AAPL shares_calc 4.06% 4.03% 4.48% 6.19% 6.53% 6.84% 8.62% 9.46% 9.13% 12.82% 14.60% 16.00% 23.13% 37.77%
AAPL sbc 2.83% 2.29% 2.16% 2.49% 2.33% 2.01% 2.11% 1.95% 1.53% 1.57% 1.32% 1.11% 1.08% 1.35%
AAPL capex 2.86% 2.72% 3.03% 2.66% 4.03% 5.01% 5.43% 5.91% 4.81% 5.24% 4.78% 5.30% 3.94% 3.07%
AAPL depreciation 3.01% 2.82% 3.08% 4.03% 4.82% 4.11% 4.43% 4.87% 4.82% 4.35% 3.95% 2.09% 1.68% 1.57%
AAPL shares_buyback -20.23% -22.67% -23.50% -26.36% -25.71% -27.39% -14.35% -13.78% -15.08% -24.62% -13.38% 0.0 0.0 0.0
AAPL dividends -3.92% -3.76% -3.95% -5.13% 5.43% 5.16% 5.57% 5.63% -4.95% -6.09% -6.18% -1.59% 0.0 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)


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