AAPL is OVERVALUED SecDiverAI
Median Fair Price 54.62
Confidence: MEDIUM
Fair Price Range 51.77 - 182.06
3 Year Price target: $ 22.88 - $ 71.16
Current Market Price: 242.7 as of 2025-01-09
Investment Value of 100 $ invested in AAPL as compared to Market Index: SPY across historical periods[*does not include dividends]
Investment Period $ Value Today(AAPL) $ Value Today(SPY) CAGR vs Market
9 years before $ 982.37 $ 208.39 28.9% vs SPY:8.5%
5 years before $ 641.19 $ 150.37 45.01% vs SPY:8.5%
3 years before $ 186.13 $ 127.73 23.01% vs SPY:8.5%
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We have 4 report results for ticker: AAPL - Apple Inc, also organized by 4 group tags below ... Bargain Finder: Related Companies Portfolio Health: Related Companies

Business Checklist for AAPL from SecDiver AI beta Free for Limited Time

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Red Flags Identified


11

Total Checks Done


29

Wall Street Drivers beta

📊 Professional Investors(wallstreet) pay a lot of heed at these numbers, long term history matters - specially 9+ year trends
Score 8.0 / 10.0

  • revenue cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['9.4 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which grow >= 5% YoY, better than GDP growth of >= 2-3%
  • cashflows cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['8.31 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which generate cashflows >= 5% YoY, for some industries like finance specially Banks this might be lower/red and its OK for them
  • shares outstanding cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['-4.64 is less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: As a business owner equity is important, We want less dilution over years OR it should reduce so our share of business increases with time, less than 2% is ideal, >=10% is potentially bad be careful
  • debt cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['24.17 is less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business with lower debt growth
  • equity cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['-7.49 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business having shareholder equity growth >= 5% YoY
  • leverage average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['1.32 is less than equal to 5', '1.32 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business which can pay their debts in less than 5 years, for some industries like finance specially Banks this might be lower/red and its OK for them
  • roe_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['190.33 is greater than equal to 10']
  • mental_model: Good Business have return on equity >= 10%
  • roce_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['56.07 is greater than equal to 15']
  • mental_model: Good Business have return on capital >= 15%
  • roic_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['285.05 is greater than equal to 15']
  • mental_model: Good Business have return on invested capital >= 15%

Business Durability beta

🏰 Quality companies with moats show higher or stable trends, long term trends matters, Consistency is the Key
Score 8.0 / 10.0

  • margin cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is stable, last 3 year ratio: 0.29 wrt mean ratio: 0.305']
  • cash average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 29517000000.0 wrt mean ratio: 24899727272.729']
  • mental_model: We want stability on cash growth
  • roa_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 32.75 wrt mean ratio: 27.074']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on assets
  • roe_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 190.33 wrt mean ratio: 85.185']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on equity
  • roce_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 56.07 wrt mean ratio: 44.768']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on capital employed
  • roic_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 285.05 wrt mean ratio: 310.947']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on invested capital

Business Trends last 3 years beta

Score 5.0 / 10.0

  • receivables running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is stable, last 3 year ratio: 0.08 wrt mean ratio: 0.08']
  • mental_model: receivables should always grow less with revenues otherwise there might be some payment/collection issues, Watch out
  • inventory running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.02 wrt mean ratio: 0.015']
  • mental_model: inventory should always grow in relation with revenues, Inventory build can be positive depending on the industry cycle, but mostly it could be a CON as working capital is tied up, Be Careful
  • payables running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is stable, last 3 year ratio: 0.16 wrt mean ratio: 0.163']
  • mental_model: the more this is the better, nothing bad about it.
  • cash running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.08 wrt mean ratio: 0.099']
  • mental_model: cash trend should be similar or greater to revenue, if company is heavily reinvesting it might be OK, but do check

Profits Matter beta

💰 Companies needs to have positive profits to reward its shareholders in the long term
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • positive cashflows profits average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['112244000000.0 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We want to see positive cashflows profits for last 3 years, Profits determine Stock prices in the long term

Capital Allocation beta

🧠 Remember: Shareholders only gets rewarded if management does prudent capital allocation decisions
Score 5.0 / 10.0

  • cashToRevenue running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.08 wrt mean ratio: 0.099']
  • cashToEquity running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.5 wrt mean ratio: 0.288']

Business Performance beta

Score 2.0 / 10.0

  • Operating Leverage Cashflow cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [0.88] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 8.31, value_2: 9.4']
  • debt cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [2.57] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 1, value_1: 24.17, value_2: 9.4']
  • cash cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [-1.28] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 9.58, value_2: -7.49']
  • debt-equity-cagr cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [-3.23] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 1, value_1: 24.17, value_2: -7.49']
  • mental_model: We want debt to grow less than equity

Balance Sheet Quality beta

📈 Quality companies can withstand darkest hours, strong balance sheet is the key
Score 3.0 / 10.0

  • debtToCashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 1.32 wrt mean ratio: 1.189']
  • debtToEquity running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 2.52 wrt mean ratio: 1.198']
  • leverage average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['1.32 is less than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business which can pay their debts in less than 5 years

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We do NOT feel in CONTROL in the markets. Do we know why?

1. Showing BALANCE_SUMMARY report for AAPL [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 242.7 as of 2025-01-09
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
AAPL StockMarketPrice 193.05 129.21 175.56 130.39 71.52 37.85 40.01 26.95 23.96 24.70 17.57 16.25 12.26 9.77
AAPL revenue 383.29B 394.33B 365.82B 274.51B 260.17B 265.60B 229.23B 215.64B 233.72B 182.79B 170.91B 156.51B 108.25B 65.22B
AAPL assets 352.58B 352.75B 351.00B 323.89B 338.52B 365.73B 375.32B 321.69B 290.48B 231.84B 207.00B 176.06B 116.37B 0.0
AAPL cash 29.96B 23.65B 34.94B 38.02B 48.84B 25.91B 20.29B 20.48B 21.12B 13.84B 14.26B 10.75B 9.81B 0.0
AAPL cashflow::operating 110.54B 122.15B 104.04B 80.67B 69.39B 77.43B 64.22B 66.23B 81.27B 59.71B 53.67B 50.86B 37.53B 18.59B
AAPL equity 62.15B 50.67B 63.09B 65.34B 90.49B 107.15B 134.05B 128.25B 119.36B 111.55B 123.55B 118.21B 76.61B 0.0
AAPL debt 105.10B 220.17B 118.72B 107.44B 102.07B 102.52B 103.70B 78.93B 55.96B 28.99B 16.96B 0.0 0.0 0.0
AAPL shares 15.81B 16.33B 16.86B 17.53B 18.60B 20.00B 5.25B 5.50B 5.79B 6.12B 6.52B 6.54B 0.92B 0.91B
AAPL shares_calc 15.55B 15.91B 16.41B 17.00B 17.00B 18.16B 19.76B 20.40B 21.33B 23.43B 24.95B 25.04B 25.04B 24.64B
AAPL inventory 6.33B 4.95B 6.58B 4.06B 4.11B 3.96B 4.86B 2.13B 2.35B 2.11B 1.76B 0.79B 0.78B 0.0
AAPL payables 62.61B 64.11B 54.76B 42.30B 46.24B 55.89B 44.24B 37.29B 35.49B 30.20B 22.37B 21.18B 14.63B 0.0
AAPL receivables 31.48B 32.75B 26.28B 21.32B 22.93B 25.81B 17.87B 15.75B 16.85B 17.46B 13.10B 10.93B 6.35B 0.0
AAPL roa_cfo 31.34% 34.80% 32.12% 23.83% 18.97% 20.63% 19.97% 22.80% 35.05% 28.85% 30.48% 43.70% 0.0 0.0
AAPL roe_cfo 218.15% 193.61% 159.23% 89.15% 64.76% 57.77% 50.08% 55.49% 72.85% 48.33% 45.40% 66.38% 0.0 0.0
AAPL roce_cfo 40.81% 67.19% 60.21% 41.90% 33.10% 32.57% 31.00% 37.78% 57.83% 42.50% 45.40% 66.38% 0.0 0.0
AAPL roic_cfo 262.47% 309.71% 282.97% 215.83% 168.00% 229.21% 237.78% 294.74% 394.04% 359.78% 347.31% 653.93% 482.56% inf
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

2. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to shares_calc for AAPL [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 242.7 as of 2025-01-09
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
AAPL StockMarketPrice
AAPL revenue 24.64 24.79 22.30 16.15 15.30 14.63 11.60 10.57 10.96 7.80 6.85 6.25 4.32 2.65
AAPL assets 22.67 22.17 21.39 19.05 19.91 20.14 18.99 15.77 13.62 9.90 8.30 7.03 4.65 0.0
AAPL cash 1.93 1.49 2.13 2.24 2.87 1.43 1.03 1.00 0.99 0.59 0.57 0.43 0.39 0.0
AAPL cashflow::operating 7.11 7.68 6.34 4.75 4.08 4.26 3.25 3.25 3.81 2.55 2.15 2.03 1.50 0.75
AAPL equity 4.00 3.19 3.85 3.84 5.32 5.90 6.78 6.29 5.59 4.76 4.95 4.72 3.06 0.0
AAPL debt 6.76 13.84 7.24 6.32 6.00 5.65 5.25 3.87 2.62 1.24 0.68 0.0 0.0 0.0
AAPL shares 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.09 1.10 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.04 0.04
AAPL shares_calc 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
AAPL inventory 0.41 0.31 0.40 0.24 0.24 0.22 0.25 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.0
AAPL payables 4.03 4.03 3.34 2.49 2.72 3.08 2.24 1.83 1.66 1.29 0.90 0.85 0.58 0.0
AAPL receivables 2.02 2.06 1.60 1.25 1.35 1.42 0.90 0.77 0.79 0.75 0.53 0.44 0.25 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

3. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to revenue for AAPL [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 242.7 as of 2025-01-09
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
AAPL StockMarketPrice
AAPL revenue 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
AAPL assets 91.99% 89.46% 95.95% 117.99% 130.11% 137.70% 163.73% 149.18% 124.29% 126.83% 121.12% 112.50% 107.50% 0.0
AAPL cash 7.82% 6.00% 9.55% 13.85% 18.77% 9.76% 8.85% 9.50% 9.04% 7.57% 8.34% 6.87% 9.07% 0.0
AAPL cashflow::operating 28.84% 30.98% 28.44% 29.39% 26.67% 29.15% 28.02% 30.71% 34.77% 32.67% 31.40% 32.49% 34.67% 28.51%
AAPL equity 16.21% 12.85% 17.25% 23.80% 34.78% 40.34% 58.48% 59.47% 51.07% 61.02% 72.29% 75.53% 70.78% 0.0
AAPL debt 27.42% 55.84% 32.45% 39.14% 39.23% 38.60% 45.24% 36.60% 23.94% 15.86% 9.92% 0.0 0.0 0.0
AAPL shares 4.13% 4.14% 4.61% 6.39% 7.15% 7.53% 2.29% 2.55% 2.48% 3.35% 3.82% 4.18% 0.85% 1.39%
AAPL shares_calc 4.06% 4.03% 4.48% 6.19% 6.53% 6.84% 8.62% 9.46% 9.13% 12.82% 14.60% 16.00% 23.13% 37.77%
AAPL inventory 1.65% 1.25% 1.80% 1.48% 1.58% 1.49% 2.12% 0.99% 1.01% 1.15% 1.03% 0.51% 0.72% 0.0
AAPL payables 16.34% 16.26% 14.97% 15.41% 17.77% 21.04% 19.30% 17.29% 15.19% 16.52% 13.09% 13.53% 13.52% 0.0
AAPL receivables 8.21% 8.30% 7.18% 7.77% 8.81% 9.72% 7.80% 7.31% 7.21% 9.55% 7.67% 6.98% 5.86% 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

4. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to assets for AAPL [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 242.7 as of 2025-01-09
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
AAPL StockMarketPrice
AAPL revenue 108.71% 111.79% 104.22% 84.76% 76.86% 72.62% 61.08% 67.03% 80.46% 78.85% 82.57% 88.89% 93.02%
AAPL assets 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
AAPL cash 8.50% 6.70% 9.95% 11.74% 14.43% 7.09% 5.41% 6.37% 7.27% 5.97% 6.89% 6.10% 8.43%
AAPL cashflow::operating 31.35% 34.63% 29.64% 24.91% 20.50% 21.17% 17.11% 20.59% 27.98% 25.76% 25.93% 28.88% 32.25%
AAPL equity 17.63% 14.36% 17.97% 20.17% 26.73% 29.30% 35.72% 39.87% 41.09% 48.11% 59.69% 67.14% 65.84%
AAPL debt 29.81% 62.42% 33.82% 33.17% 30.15% 28.03% 27.63% 24.54% 19.27% 12.50% 8.19% 0.0 0.0
AAPL shares 4.48% 4.63% 4.80% 5.41% 5.49% 5.47% 1.40% 1.71% 1.99% 2.64% 3.15% 3.72% 0.79%
AAPL shares_calc 4.41% 4.51% 4.67% 5.25% 5.02% 4.96% 5.27% 6.34% 7.34% 10.11% 12.06% 14.22% 21.52%
AAPL inventory 1.80% 1.40% 1.87% 1.25% 1.21% 1.08% 1.29% 0.66% 0.81% 0.91% 0.85% 0.45% 0.67%
AAPL payables 17.76% 18.18% 15.60% 13.06% 13.66% 15.28% 11.79% 11.59% 12.22% 13.02% 10.81% 12.03% 12.57%
AAPL receivables 8.93% 9.28% 7.49% 6.58% 6.77% 7.06% 4.76% 4.90% 5.80% 7.53% 6.33% 6.21% 5.45%
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)


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