ADP is OVERVALUED SecDiverAI
Median Fair Price 206.66
Confidence: MEDIUM
Fair Price Range 121.91 - 294.72
1 Year Price target: $ 199.34 - $ 233.28
3 Year Price target: $ 185.48 - $ 297.24
Current Market Price: 293.28 as of 2025-04-18
Investment Value of 100 $ invested in ADP as compared to Market Index: SPY across historical periods[*does not include dividends]
Investment Period $ Value Today(ADP) $ Value Today(SPY) CAGR vs Market
9 years before $ 422.36 $ 208.39 17.36% vs SPY:8.5%
5 years before $ 192.29 $ 150.37 13.97% vs SPY:8.5%
3 years before $ 127.34 $ 127.73 8.39% vs SPY:8.5%
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We have 4 report results for ticker: ADP - Automatic Data Processing, Inc., also organized by 4 group tags below ... Bargain Finder: Related Companies Portfolio Health: Related Companies

Business Checklist for ADP from SecDiver AI beta Free for Limited Time

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Red Flags Identified


12

Total Checks Done


29

Wall Street Drivers beta

📊 Professional Investors(wallstreet) pay a lot of heed at these numbers, long term history matters - specially 9+ year trends
Score 6.0 / 10.0

  • revenue cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['5.05 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which grow >= 5% YoY, better than GDP growth of >= 2-3%
  • cashflows cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['8.73 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which generate cashflows >= 5% YoY, for some industries like finance specially Banks this might be lower/red and its OK for them
  • shares outstanding cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['-1.56 is less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: As a business owner equity is important, We want less dilution over years OR it should reduce so our share of business increases with time, less than 2% is ideal, >=10% is potentially bad be careful
  • debt cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['8.22 is NOT less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business with lower debt growth
  • equity cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['-4.83 is NOT greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business having shareholder equity growth >= 5% YoY
  • leverage average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['13.58 is NOT less than equal to 5', '13.58 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business which can pay their debts in less than 5 years using cashflows, for some industries like finance specially Banks this might be lower/red and its OK for them
  • roe_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['101.19 is greater than equal to 10']
  • mental_model: Good Business have return on equity >= 10%
  • roce_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['7.19 is NOT greater than equal to 15']
  • mental_model: Good Business have return on capital >= 15%
  • roic_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['119.1 is greater than equal to 15']
  • mental_model: Good Business have return on invested capital >= 15%

Business Durability beta

🏰 Quality companies with moats show higher or stable trends, long term trends matters, Consistency is the Key
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • margin cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.21 wrt mean ratio: 0.182']
  • cash average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is stable, last 3 year ratio: 2144400000.0 wrt mean ratio: 2099002777.777']
  • mental_model: We want stability on cash growth
  • roa_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 7.06 wrt mean ratio: 6.364']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on assets
  • roe_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 101.19 wrt mean ratio: 53.147']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on equity
  • roce_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 7.19 wrt mean ratio: 6.624']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on capital employed
  • roic_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 119.1 wrt mean ratio: 100.738']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on invested capital

Business Trends last 3 years beta

Score 3.0 / 10.0

  • receivables running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.18 wrt mean ratio: 0.157']
  • mental_model: receivables should always grow less with revenues otherwise there might be some payment/collection issues, Watch out
  • payables running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.03 wrt mean ratio: 0.023']
  • mental_model: the more this is the better, nothing bad about it.
  • cash running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.12 wrt mean ratio: 0.16']
  • mental_model: cash trend should be similar or greater to revenue, if company is heavily reinvesting it might be OK, but do check

Profits Matter beta

💰 Companies needs to have positive profits to reward its shareholders in the long term
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • positive cashflows profits average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['3821000000.0 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We want to see positive cashflows profits for last 3 years, Profits determine Stock prices in the long term

Capital Allocation beta

🧠 Remember: Shareholders only gets rewarded if management does prudent capital allocation decisions
Score 5.0 / 10.0

  • cashToRevenue running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.12 wrt mean ratio: 0.16']
  • cashToEquity running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.57 wrt mean ratio: 0.43']

Business Performance beta

Score 5.0 / 10.0

  • Operating Leverage Cashflow cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [1.73] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 8.73, value_2: 5.05']
  • debt cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [1.63] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 1, value_1: 8.22, value_2: 5.05']
  • cash cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [-0.37] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 1.77, value_2: -4.83']
  • debt-equity-cagr cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [-1.7] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 1, value_1: 8.22, value_2: -4.83']
  • mental_model: We want debt to grow less than equity

Balance Sheet Quality beta

📈 Quality companies can withstand darkest hours, strong balance sheet is the key
Score 3.0 / 10.0

  • debtToCashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is stable, last 3 year ratio: 13.58 wrt mean ratio: 14.098']
  • debtToEquity running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 13.8 wrt mean ratio: 7.264']
  • leverage average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['13.58 is NOT less than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business which can pay their debts in less than 5 years

Taxes, Interest and Unearned beta

📈Note: this is a new one, so do not use this for now, we are looking at data
Score 0.0 / 10.0

  • unearned_revenue_balancesheet running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.02 wrt mean ratio: 0.03']

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We do NOT feel in CONTROL in the markets. Do we know why?

1. Showing BALANCE_SUMMARY report for ADP [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 293.28 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
ADP StockMarketPrice 291.18 226.76 227.32 230.29 161.49 152.55 114.96 100.61 86.33 69.46 66.72 55.44 38.08 35.09
ADP revenue 19.20B 18.01B 16.50B 15.01B 14.59B 14.18B 13.33B 12.38B 11.67B 10.94B 12.21B 11.31B 10.66B 9.88B 8.93B
ADP assets 54.36B 50.97B 63.07B 48.77B 39.16B 41.89B 38.85B 37.18B 43.67B 33.11B 32.06B 32.27B 30.82B 34.24B 0.0
ADP cash 2.91B 2.08B 1.44B 2.58B 1.91B 1.95B 2.17B 2.78B 3.19B 1.64B 1.98B 1.70B 1.55B 1.39B 0.0
ADP cashflow::operating 4.16B 4.21B 3.10B 3.09B 3.03B 2.69B 2.52B 2.12B 1.90B 1.97B 1.82B 1.58B 1.91B 1.71B 1.68B
ADP equity 4.55B 3.51B 3.23B 5.67B 5.75B 5.40B 4.74B 3.98B 4.48B 4.81B 6.67B 6.19B 6.11B 6.01B 0.0
ADP debt 48.45B 45.86B 61.40B 41.10B 31.14B 34.89B 32.42B 31.82B 37.85B 27.12B 24.18B 24.75B 23.27B 24.62B 0.0
ADP shares 0.41B 0.41B 0.42B 0.43B 0.43B 0.44B 0.44B 0.45B 0.46B 0.47B 0.48B 0.48B 0.49B 0.49B 0.50B
ADP shares_calc 0.41B 0.41B 0.41B 0.42B 0.43B 0.43B 0.44B 0.44B 0.45B 0.46B 0.48B 0.48B 0.49B 0.49B 0.50B
ADP payables 0.57B 0.51B 0.43B 0.39B 0.39B 0.34B 0.30B 0.25B 0.24B 0.23B 0.23B 0.21B 0.19B 0.17B 0.0
ADP receivables 3.43B 3.01B 3.17B 2.73B 2.44B 2.44B 1.98B 1.70B 1.74B 1.55B 1.80B 1.60B 1.40B 1.36B 0.0
ADP roa_cfo 8.16% 6.67% 6.35% 7.90% 7.22% 6.92% 6.76% 4.87% 5.73% 6.16% 5.64% 5.12% 5.58% 0.0 0.0
ADP roe_cfo 118.47% 130.45% 54.66% 53.77% 56.04% 56.76% 63.24% 47.42% 39.46% 29.60% 29.42% 25.79% 31.78% 0.0 0.0
ADP roce_cfo 8.42% 6.51% 6.63% 8.38% 7.51% 7.24% 7.03% 5.02% 5.94% 6.40% 5.89% 5.37% 6.23% 0.0 0.0
ADP roic_cfo 130.72% 123.99% 102.58% 112.19% 105.68% 108.43% 112.68% 97.08% 95.23% 83.96% 85.90% 82.26% 100.21% 89.45% inf
ADP goodwill 2.35B 2.34B 2.30B 2.34B 2.31B 2.32B 2.24B 1.74B 1.68B 1.79B 3.11B 3.05B 3.15B 3.07B 0.0
ADP unearned_revenue_balancesheet 0.36B 0.35B 0.34B 0.36B 0.37B 0.40B 0.45B 0.39B 0.38B 0.36B 0.51B 0.49B 0.47B 0.0 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

2. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to shares_calc for ADP [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 293.28 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
ADP StockMarketPrice
ADP revenue 47.13 43.79 39.77 35.61 34.02 32.76 30.45 27.86 25.99 23.72 25.54 23.46 21.90 20.04 17.85
ADP assets 133.42 123.93 152.03 115.74 91.33 96.81 88.75 83.67 97.28 71.79 67.07 66.95 63.28 69.45 0.0
ADP cash 7.15 5.07 3.46 6.11 4.45 4.50 4.96 6.26 7.11 3.55 4.15 3.53 3.18 2.82 0.0
ADP cashflow::operating 10.20 10.23 7.47 7.34 7.06 6.21 5.75 4.78 4.23 4.28 3.81 3.27 3.92 3.46 3.36
ADP equity 11.16 8.53 7.77 13.46 13.41 12.48 10.82 8.95 9.98 10.42 13.95 12.84 12.55 12.19 0.0
ADP debt 118.92 111.50 148.02 97.54 72.62 80.64 74.05 71.60 84.32 58.81 50.58 51.34 47.78 49.95 0.0
ADP shares 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
ADP shares_calc 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
ADP payables 1.39 1.24 1.03 0.93 0.90 0.79 0.68 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.47 0.43 0.39 0.35 0.0
ADP receivables 8.41 7.32 7.64 6.47 5.69 5.64 4.53 3.83 3.88 3.35 3.77 3.32 2.87 2.77 0.0
ADP goodwill 5.77 5.69 5.54 5.55 5.38 5.37 5.13 3.92 3.75 3.89 6.51 6.33 6.48 6.23 0.0
ADP unearned_revenue_balancesheet 0.88 0.85 0.81 0.86 0.86 0.92 1.02 0.88 0.85 0.78 1.07 1.02 0.96 0.0 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

3. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to revenue for ADP [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 293.28 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
ADP StockMarketPrice
ADP revenue 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
ADP assets 283.10% 282.98% 382.27% 325.03% 268.44% 295.50% 291.51% 300.35% 374.30% 302.71% 262.65% 285.31% 288.95% 346.57% 0.0
ADP cash 15.17% 11.57% 8.71% 17.16% 13.08% 13.75% 16.28% 22.46% 27.35% 14.99% 16.25% 15.02% 14.52% 14.06% 0.0
ADP cashflow::operating 21.65% 23.36% 18.78% 20.61% 20.74% 18.96% 18.87% 17.17% 16.26% 18.05% 14.92% 13.94% 17.91% 17.26% 18.84%
ADP equity 23.68% 19.48% 19.55% 37.79% 39.42% 38.09% 35.54% 32.13% 38.41% 43.96% 54.65% 54.72% 57.33% 60.84% 0.0
ADP debt 252.34% 254.61% 372.18% 273.91% 213.44% 246.15% 243.23% 257.02% 324.45% 247.96% 198.08% 218.80% 218.17% 249.27% 0.0
ADP shares 2.15% 2.30% 2.55% 2.85% 2.96% 3.08% 3.30% 3.61% 3.92% 4.32% 3.92% 4.26% 4.57% 4.99% 5.60%
ADP shares_calc 2.12% 2.28% 2.51% 2.81% 2.94% 3.05% 3.28% 3.59% 3.85% 4.22% 3.92% 4.26% 4.57% 4.99% 5.60%
ADP payables 2.95% 2.83% 2.60% 2.60% 2.65% 2.40% 2.24% 2.02% 2.04% 2.07% 1.85% 1.82% 1.76% 1.76% 0.0
ADP receivables 17.85% 16.71% 19.21% 18.17% 16.73% 17.21% 14.89% 13.76% 14.93% 14.13% 14.75% 14.13% 13.12% 13.81% 0.0
ADP goodwill 12.25% 12.99% 13.94% 15.58% 15.83% 16.39% 16.83% 14.06% 14.42% 16.39% 25.50% 26.98% 29.58% 31.11% 0.0
ADP unearned_revenue_balancesheet 1.87% 1.93% 2.03% 2.41% 2.54% 2.82% 3.36% 3.16% 3.27% 3.31% 4.20% 4.36% 4.37% 0.0 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

4. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to assets for ADP [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 293.28 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
ADP StockMarketPrice
ADP revenue 35.32% 35.34% 26.16% 30.77% 37.25% 33.84% 34.30% 33.29% 26.72% 33.04% 38.07% 35.05% 34.61% 28.85%
ADP assets 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
ADP cash 5.36% 4.09% 2.28% 5.28% 4.87% 4.65% 5.59% 7.48% 7.31% 4.95% 6.19% 5.27% 5.02% 4.06%
ADP cashflow::operating 7.65% 8.25% 4.91% 6.34% 7.73% 6.42% 6.47% 5.72% 4.34% 5.96% 5.68% 4.89% 6.20% 4.98%
ADP equity 8.36% 6.88% 5.11% 11.63% 14.69% 12.89% 12.19% 10.70% 10.26% 14.52% 20.81% 19.18% 19.84% 17.55%
ADP debt 89.13% 89.97% 97.36% 84.27% 79.51% 83.30% 83.44% 85.58% 86.68% 81.91% 75.42% 76.69% 75.50% 71.92%
ADP shares 0.76% 0.81% 0.67% 0.88% 1.10% 1.04% 1.13% 1.20% 1.05% 1.43% 1.49% 1.49% 1.58% 1.44%
ADP shares_calc 0.75% 0.81% 0.66% 0.86% 1.09% 1.03% 1.13% 1.20% 1.03% 1.39% 1.49% 1.49% 1.58% 1.44%
ADP payables 1.04% 1.00% 0.68% 0.80% 0.99% 0.81% 0.77% 0.67% 0.54% 0.68% 0.70% 0.64% 0.61% 0.51%
ADP receivables 6.31% 5.90% 5.03% 5.59% 6.23% 5.82% 5.11% 4.58% 3.99% 4.67% 5.61% 4.95% 4.54% 3.98%
ADP goodwill 4.33% 4.59% 3.65% 4.79% 5.90% 5.55% 5.77% 4.68% 3.85% 5.42% 9.71% 9.46% 10.24% 8.98%
ADP unearned_revenue_balancesheet 0.66% 0.68% 0.53% 0.74% 0.94% 0.95% 1.15% 1.05% 0.87% 1.09% 1.60% 1.53% 1.51% 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)


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