ADP is OVERVALUED SecDiverAI
Median Fair Price 206.66
Confidence: MEDIUM
Fair Price Range 121.91 - 294.72
1 Year Price target: $ 199.34 - $ 233.28
3 Year Price target: $ 185.48 - $ 297.24
Current Market Price: 293.28 as of 2025-04-18
Investment Value of 100 $ invested in ADP as compared to Market Index: SPY across historical periods[*does not include dividends]
Investment Period $ Value Today(ADP) $ Value Today(SPY) CAGR vs Market
9 years before $ 422.36 $ 208.39 17.36% vs SPY:8.5%
5 years before $ 192.29 $ 150.37 13.97% vs SPY:8.5%
3 years before $ 127.34 $ 127.73 8.39% vs SPY:8.5%
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We have 3 report results for ticker: ADP - Automatic Data Processing, Inc., also organized by 3 group tags below ... Bargain Finder: Related Companies Portfolio Health: Related Companies

Business Checklist for ADP from SecDiver AI beta Free for Limited Time

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Red Flags Identified


3

Total Checks Done


14

Wall Street Drivers beta

📊 Professional Investors(wallstreet) pay a lot of heed at these numbers, long term history matters - specially 9+ year trends
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • revenue cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['5.05 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which grow >= 5% YoY, better than GDP growth of >= 2-3%
  • cashflows cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['8.73 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which generate cashflows >= 5% YoY, for some industries like finance specially Banks this might be lower/red and its OK for them
  • shares outstanding cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['-1.56 is less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: As a business owner equity is important, We want less dilution over years OR it should reduce so our share of business increases with time, less than 2% is ideal, >=10% is potentially bad be careful
  • sbc average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['0.06 is less than equal to 0.1']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business which has lower sbc % wrt cashflow operating

Business Durability beta

🏰 Quality companies with moats show higher or stable trends, long term trends matters, Consistency is the Key
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • margin cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.21 wrt mean ratio: 0.182']

Business Trends last 3 years beta

Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • capex running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.01 wrt mean ratio: 0.011']

Profits Matter beta

💰 Companies needs to have positive profits to reward its shareholders in the long term
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • positive cashflows profits average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['3821000000.0 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We want to see positive cashflows profits for last 3 years, Profits determine Stock prices in the long term

Capital Allocation beta

🧠 Remember: Shareholders only gets rewarded if management does prudent capital allocation decisions
Score 6.0 / 10.0

  • capex to Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.05 wrt mean ratio: 0.072']
  • depreciation to capex running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 2.76 wrt mean ratio: 2.302']
  • mental_model: Helps understand where the company is investing for the future, OR it has to replenish its assets to maintain business
  • stock based compensation to Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is stable, last 3 year ratio: 0.06 wrt mean ratio: 0.061']
  • dividend distribution to Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: -0.5 wrt mean ratio: -0.453']
  • shares_buyback distribution of Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: -0.38 wrt mean ratio: -0.438']

Business Performance beta

Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • Operating Leverage Cashflow cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [1.73] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 8.73, value_2: 5.05']

Taxes, Interest and Unearned beta

📈Note: this is a new one, so do not use this for now, we are looking at data
Score 0.0 / 10.0

  • income_tax_cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.06 wrt mean ratio: 0.053']

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We do NOT feel in CONTROL in the markets. Do we know why?

1. Showing CASHFLOW_SUMMARY report for ADP [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 293.28 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
ADP revenue 19.20B 18.01B 16.50B 15.01B 14.59B 14.18B 13.33B 12.38B 11.67B 10.94B 12.21B 11.31B 10.66B 9.88B 8.93B
ADP cashflow::operating 4.16B 4.21B 3.10B 3.09B 3.03B 2.69B 2.52B 2.12B 1.90B 1.97B 1.82B 1.58B 1.91B 1.71B 1.68B
ADP shares 0.41B 0.41B 0.42B 0.43B 0.43B 0.44B 0.44B 0.45B 0.46B 0.47B 0.48B 0.48B 0.49B 0.49B 0.50B
ADP shares_calc 0.41B 0.41B 0.41B 0.42B 0.43B 0.43B 0.44B 0.44B 0.45B 0.46B 0.48B 0.48B 0.49B 0.49B 0.50B
ADP income_tax_cashflow 1.19B 1.08B 0.86B 0.97B 0.68B 0.63B 0.53B 0.82B 0.65B 0.77B 0.82B 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ADP sbc 0.24B 0.22B 0.20B 0.17B 0.13B 0.17B 0.17B 0.14B 0.14B 0.14B 0.14B 0.10B 0.09B 0.09B 0.07B
ADP capex 0.21B 0.21B 0.17B 0.18B 0.17B 0.16B 0.21B 0.24B 0.08B 0.16B 0.16B 0.13B 0.14B 0.18B 0.10B
ADP depreciation 0.56B 0.55B 0.52B 0.51B 0.48B 0.41B 0.38B 0.32B 0.29B 0.28B 0.34B 0.32B 0.32B 0.32B 0.31B
ADP margin_cfo 21.65% 23.36% 18.78% 20.61% 20.74% 18.96% 18.87% 17.17% 16.26% 18.05% 14.92% 13.94% 17.91% 17.26% 18.84%
ADP shares_buyback -1.23B -1.12B -1.97B -1.37B -1.01B -0.94B -0.99B -1.26B -0.58B -1.56B -0.67B -0.65B -0.74B -0.73B -0.77B
ADP dividends -2.18B -1.90B -1.66B -1.58B -1.47B -1.29B -1.06B -1.00B -0.47B -0.93B -0.88B -0.81B -0.74B -0.69B -0.67B
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

2. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to shares_calc for ADP [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 293.28 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
ADP revenue 47.13 43.79 39.77 35.61 34.02 32.76 30.45 27.86 25.99 23.72 25.54 23.46 21.90 20.04 17.85
ADP cashflow::operating 10.20 10.23 7.47 7.34 7.06 6.21 5.75 4.78 4.23 4.28 3.81 3.27 3.92 3.46 3.36
ADP shares 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
ADP shares_calc 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
ADP income_tax_cashflow 2.91 2.63 2.07 2.31 1.58 1.46 1.21 1.84 1.45 1.68 1.72 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ADP sbc 0.60 0.53 0.48 0.42 0.30 0.39 0.40 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.29 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.13
ADP capex 0.51 0.50 0.42 0.42 0.40 0.37 0.47 0.54 0.19 0.34 0.33 0.27 0.29 0.37 0.21
ADP depreciation 1.38 1.33 1.24 1.21 1.12 0.95 0.86 0.71 0.64 0.60 0.70 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.62
ADP shares_buyback -3.02 -2.73 -4.75 -3.26 -2.35 -2.17 -2.26 -2.83 -1.29 -3.38 -1.40 -1.34 -1.52 -1.49 -1.53
ADP dividends -5.36 -4.63 -4.00 -3.74 -3.43 -2.99 -2.43 -2.24 -1.05 -2.01 -1.85 -1.67 -1.52 -1.40 -1.35
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

3. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to revenue for ADP [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 293.28 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
ADP revenue 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
ADP cashflow::operating 21.65% 23.36% 18.78% 20.61% 20.74% 18.96% 18.87% 17.17% 16.26% 18.05% 14.92% 13.94% 17.91% 17.26% 18.84%
ADP shares 2.15% 2.30% 2.55% 2.85% 2.96% 3.08% 3.30% 3.61% 3.92% 4.32% 3.92% 4.26% 4.57% 4.99% 5.60%
ADP shares_calc 2.12% 2.28% 2.51% 2.81% 2.94% 3.05% 3.28% 3.59% 3.85% 4.22% 3.92% 4.26% 4.57% 4.99% 5.60%
ADP income_tax_cashflow 6.17% 6.00% 5.19% 6.49% 4.64% 4.47% 3.97% 6.60% 5.58% 7.07% 6.73% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ADP sbc 1.27% 1.22% 1.22% 1.17% 0.89% 1.18% 1.31% 1.11% 1.17% 1.31% 1.13% 0.85% 0.88% 0.91% 0.75%
ADP capex 1.09% 1.15% 1.06% 1.19% 1.18% 1.14% 1.55% 1.94% 0.72% 1.45% 1.31% 1.15% 1.31% 1.84% 1.15%
ADP depreciation 2.92% 3.05% 3.12% 3.40% 3.29% 2.89% 2.83% 2.55% 2.47% 2.53% 2.75% 2.80% 3.03% 3.22% 3.46%
ADP shares_buyback -6.41% -6.23% -11.94% -9.15% -6.90% -6.62% -7.42% -10.18% -4.95% -14.24% -5.47% -5.72% -6.95% -7.42% -8.59%
ADP dividends -11.37% -10.57% -10.06% -10.50% -10.08% -9.12% -7.98% -8.04% -4.04% -8.48% -7.23% -7.12% -6.94% -7.01% -7.54%
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)


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