NVDA is OVERVALUED SecDiverAI
Median Fair Price 41.86
Confidence: MEDIUM
Fair Price Range 36.73 - 60.58
1 Year Price target: $ 52.87 - $ 59.47
3 Year Price target: $ 84.36 - $ 120.01
Current Market Price: 101.43 as of 2025-04-18
Investment Value of 100 $ invested in NVDA as compared to Market Index: SPY across historical periods[*does not include dividends]
Investment Period $ Value Today(NVDA) $ Value Today(SPY) CAGR vs Market
9 years before $ 3855.88 $ 208.39 50.05% vs SPY:8.5%
5 years before $ 779.07 $ 150.37 50.77% vs SPY:8.5%
3 years before $ 694.71 $ 127.73 90.81% vs SPY:8.5%
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We have 3 report results for ticker: NVDA - NVIDIA Corporation, also organized by 3 group tags below ... Bargain Finder: Related Companies Portfolio Health: Related Companies

Business Checklist for NVDA from SecDiver AI beta Free for Limited Time

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Red Flags Identified


4

Total Checks Done


14

Wall Street Drivers beta

📊 Professional Investors(wallstreet) pay a lot of heed at these numbers, long term history matters - specially 9+ year trends
Score 8.0 / 10.0

  • revenue cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['33.27 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which grow >= 5% YoY, better than GDP growth of >= 2-3%
  • cashflows cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['42.02 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which generate cashflows >= 5% YoY, for some industries like finance specially Banks this might be lower/red and its OK for them
  • shares outstanding cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['1.04 is less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: As a business owner equity is important, We want less dilution over years OR it should reduce so our share of business increases with time, less than 2% is ideal, >=10% is potentially bad be careful
  • sbc average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['0.11 is NOT less than equal to 0.1']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business which has lower sbc % wrt cashflow operating

Business Durability beta

🏰 Quality companies with moats show higher or stable trends, long term trends matters, Consistency is the Key
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • margin cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.45 wrt mean ratio: 0.296']

Business Trends last 3 years beta

Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • capex running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.03 wrt mean ratio: 0.041']

Profits Matter beta

💰 Companies needs to have positive profits to reward its shareholders in the long term
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • positive cashflows profits average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['32606666666.67 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We want to see positive cashflows profits for last 3 years, Profits determine Stock prices in the long term

Capital Allocation beta

🧠 Remember: Shareholders only gets rewarded if management does prudent capital allocation decisions
Score 6.0 / 10.0

  • capex to Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.06 wrt mean ratio: 0.147']
  • depreciation to capex running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.8 wrt mean ratio: 1.074']
  • mental_model: Helps understand where the company is investing for the future, OR it has to replenish its assets to maintain business
  • stock based compensation to Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.11 wrt mean ratio: 0.172']
  • dividend distribution to Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: -0.02 wrt mean ratio: -0.102']
  • shares_buyback distribution of Cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: -0.54 wrt mean ratio: -0.675']

Business Performance beta

Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • Operating Leverage Cashflow cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [1.26] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 42.02, value_2: 33.27']

Taxes, Interest and Unearned beta

📈Note: this is a new one, so do not use this for now, we are looking at data
Score 0.0 / 10.0

  • income_tax_cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.11 wrt mean ratio: 0.02']

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We do NOT feel in CONTROL in the markets. Do we know why?

1. Showing CASHFLOW_SUMMARY report for NVDA [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 101.43 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
NVDA revenue 130.50B 60.92B 26.97B 26.91B 16.68B 10.92B 11.72B 9.71B 6.91B 5.01B 4.68B 4.13B 4.28B 4.00B 3.54B 3.33B
NVDA cashflow::operating 64.09B 28.09B 5.64B 9.11B 5.82B 4.76B 3.74B 3.50B 1.67B 1.18B 0.91B 0.84B 0.82B 0.91B 0.68B 0.0
NVDA shares 24.80B 24.94B 25.07B 2.54B 2.47B 2.44B 0.61B 0.60B 0.54B 0.54B 0.55B 0.59B 0.62B 0.60B 0.58B 0.55B
NVDA shares_calc 24.80B 25.41B 25.41B 26.08B 25.64B 25.64B 25.35B 25.27B 25.14B 22.33B 22.28B 24.36B 25.65B 25.00B 23.82B 22.76B
NVDA income_tax_cashflow 15.12B 6.55B 1.40B 0.40B 0.25B 0.18B 0.06B 0.02B 0.01B 0.01B 0.01B 0.01B 0.01B 0.06B -0.00B 0.00B
NVDA sbc 4.74B 3.55B 2.71B 2.00B 1.40B 0.84B 0.56B 0.39B 0.25B 0.20B 0.16B 0.14B 0.14B 0.14B 0.10B 0.11B
NVDA capex 3.24B 1.07B 1.83B 0.98B 1.13B 0.49B 0.60B 0.59B 0.18B 0.09B 0.12B 0.26B 0.18B 0.14B 0.10B 0.08B
NVDA depreciation 1.86B 1.51B 1.54B 1.17B 1.10B 0.38B 0.26B 0.20B 0.19B 0.20B 0.22B 0.24B 0.23B 0.20B 0.19B 0.20B
NVDA margin_cfo 49.11% 46.11% 20.91% 33.84% 34.91% 43.61% 31.95% 36.05% 24.20% 23.45% 19.35% 20.22% 19.26% 22.74% 19.07% 0.0
NVDA shares_buyback -33.71B -9.53B -10.04B -9.53B -10.04B 0.0 -1.58B -0.91B -0.74B -0.59B -0.81B -0.89B -0.10B 0.0 0.0 0.0
NVDA dividends -0.83B -0.40B -0.40B -0.40B -0.40B -0.39B -0.37B -0.34B -0.26B -0.21B -0.19B -0.18B -0.05B 0.0 0.0 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

2. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to shares_calc for NVDA [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 101.43 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
NVDA revenue 5.26 2.40 1.06 1.03 0.65 0.43 0.46 0.38 0.27 0.22 0.21 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.15
NVDA cashflow::operating 2.58 1.11 0.22 0.35 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.14 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.0
NVDA shares 1.00 0.98 0.99 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
NVDA shares_calc 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
NVDA income_tax_cashflow 0.61 0.26 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NVDA sbc 0.19 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.0
NVDA capex 0.13 0.04 0.07 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.0
NVDA depreciation 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
NVDA shares_buyback -1.36 -0.38 -0.40 -0.37 -0.39 0.0 -0.06 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NVDA dividends -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

3. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to revenue for NVDA [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 101.43 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
NVDA revenue 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
NVDA cashflow::operating 49.11% 46.11% 20.91% 33.84% 34.91% 43.61% 31.95% 36.05% 24.20% 23.45% 19.35% 20.22% 19.26% 22.74% 19.07% 0.0
NVDA shares 19.01% 40.94% 92.94% 9.42% 14.79% 22.34% 5.19% 6.17% 7.83% 10.84% 11.80% 14.24% 14.47% 15.10% 16.23% 16.52%
NVDA shares_calc 19.01% 41.71% 94.21% 96.91% 153.76% 234.84% 216.37% 260.11% 363.86% 445.62% 475.96% 589.70% 599.34% 625.41% 672.37% 684.33%
NVDA income_tax_cashflow 11.58% 10.75% 5.21% 1.47% 1.49% 1.61% 0.52% 0.23% 0.20% 0.28% 0.30% 0.36% 0.35% 1.46% -0.03% 0.13%
NVDA sbc 3.63% 5.83% 10.04% 7.45% 8.38% 7.73% 4.75% 4.03% 3.57% 4.07% 3.37% 3.30% 3.19% 3.41% 2.83% 3.22%
NVDA capex 2.48% 1.75% 6.80% 3.63% 6.76% 4.48% 5.12% 6.10% 2.55% 1.72% 2.61% 6.17% 4.28% 3.47% 2.76% 2.33%
NVDA depreciation 1.43% 2.48% 5.72% 4.36% 6.58% 3.49% 2.24% 2.05% 2.71% 3.93% 4.70% 5.79% 5.29% 5.11% 5.28% 5.91%
NVDA shares_buyback -25.83% -15.65% -37.22% -35.42% -60.20% 0.0 -13.48% -9.36% -10.69% -11.72% -17.38% -21.48% -2.34% 0.0 0.0 0.0
NVDA dividends -0.64% -0.65% -1.48% -1.48% -2.37% -3.57% -3.17% -3.51% -3.78% -4.25% -3.97% -4.38% -1.09% 0.0 0.0 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)


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