NVDA is OVERVALUED SecDiverAI
Median Fair Price 41.86
Confidence: MEDIUM
Fair Price Range 36.73 - 60.58
1 Year Price target: $ 52.87 - $ 59.47
3 Year Price target: $ 84.36 - $ 120.01
Current Market Price: 101.43 as of 2025-04-18
Investment Value of 100 $ invested in NVDA as compared to Market Index: SPY across historical periods[*does not include dividends]
Investment Period $ Value Today(NVDA) $ Value Today(SPY) CAGR vs Market
9 years before $ 3855.88 $ 208.39 50.05% vs SPY:8.5%
5 years before $ 779.07 $ 150.37 50.77% vs SPY:8.5%
3 years before $ 694.71 $ 127.73 90.81% vs SPY:8.5%
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We have 3 report results for ticker: NVDA - NVIDIA Corporation, also organized by 3 group tags below ... Bargain Finder: Related Companies Portfolio Health: Related Companies

Business Checklist for NVDA from SecDiver AI beta Free for Limited Time

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Red Flags Identified


1

Total Checks Done


11

Wall Street Drivers beta

📊 Professional Investors(wallstreet) pay a lot of heed at these numbers, long term history matters - specially 9+ year trends
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • revenue cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['33.27 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which grow >= 5% YoY, better than GDP growth of >= 2-3%
  • operating profits cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['49.11 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which generate operating profits >= 5% YoY
  • shares outstanding cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['1.04 is less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: As a business owner equity is important, We want less dilution over years OR it should reduce so our share of business increases with time, less than 2% is ideal, >=10% is potentially bad be careful
  • net profits cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['50.84 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which generate net profits >= 5% YoY

Business Durability beta

🏰 Quality companies with moats show higher or stable trends, long term trends matters, Consistency is the Key
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • margin operating running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.54 wrt mean ratio: 0.254']
  • margin net running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.49 wrt mean ratio: 0.239']

Business Trends last 3 years beta

Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • research & development running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.13 wrt mean ratio: 0.231']
  • mental_model: Rnd is good specially when company is increasing moat but be careful with the spend, typically RND spend shows up 2-3 years, Read Annual statements to understand why this RND is increasing

Profits Matter beta

💰 Companies needs to have positive profits to reward its shareholders in the long term
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • positive operating profits average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['39549666666.67 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We want to see positive operating profits for last 3 years, Profits determine Stock prices in the long term
  • positive net profits average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['35669333333.33 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We want to see positive net profits for last 3 years, GAAP net Profits determine Stock prices in the long term

Business Performance beta

Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • Operating Leverage cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [1.48] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 49.11, value_2: 33.27']

Taxes, Interest and Unearned beta

📈Note: this is a new one, so do not use this for now, we are looking at data
Score 0.0 / 10.0

  • interest_income running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.01 wrt mean ratio: 0.007']

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We do NOT feel in CONTROL in the markets. Do we know why?

1. Showing INCOME_SUMMARY report for NVDA [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 101.43 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
NVDA revenue 130.50B 60.92B 26.97B 26.91B 16.68B 10.92B 11.72B 9.71B 6.91B 5.01B 4.68B 4.13B 4.28B 4.00B 3.54B 3.33B
NVDA netincome 72.88B 29.76B 4.37B 9.75B 4.33B 2.80B 4.14B 3.05B 1.67B 0.61B 0.63B 0.44B 0.56B 0.58B 0.25B -0.07B
NVDA operatingincome 81.45B 32.97B 4.22B 10.04B 4.53B 2.85B 3.80B 3.21B 1.93B 0.75B 0.76B 0.50B 0.65B 0.65B 0.26B -0.10B
NVDA grossincome 97.86B 44.30B 15.36B 17.48B 10.40B 6.77B 7.17B 5.82B 4.06B 2.81B 2.60B 2.27B 2.23B 2.06B 1.41B 1.18B
NVDA interest_income 1.79B 0.87B 0.27B 0.03B 0.06B 0.18B 0.14B 0.07B 0.05B 0.04B 0.03B 0.02B 0.02B 0.02B 0.02B 0.02B
NVDA interest_expense 0.25B 0.26B 0.26B 0.24B 0.18B 0.05B 0.06B 0.06B 0.06B 0.05B 0.05B 0.01B 0.00B 0.00B 0.00B 0.00B
NVDA shares 24.80B 24.94B 25.07B 2.54B 2.47B 2.44B 0.61B 0.60B 0.54B 0.54B 0.55B 0.59B 0.62B 0.60B 0.58B 0.55B
NVDA shares_calc 24.80B 25.41B 25.41B 26.08B 25.64B 25.64B 25.35B 25.27B 25.14B 22.33B 22.28B 24.36B 25.65B 25.00B 23.82B 22.76B
NVDA margin_gross 74.99% 72.72% 56.93% 64.93% 62.34% 61.99% 61.21% 59.93% 58.80% 56.11% 55.52% 54.91% 52.02% 51.44% 39.77% 35.38%
NVDA margin_op 62.42% 54.12% 15.66% 37.31% 27.18% 26.07% 32.47% 33.05% 27.99% 14.91% 16.21% 12.01% 15.15% 16.22% 7.22% -2.97%
NVDA margin_net 55.85% 48.85% 16.19% 36.23% 25.98% 25.61% 35.34% 31.37% 24.11% 12.26% 13.48% 10.65% 13.14% 14.53% 7.14% -2.04%
NVDA costs:ga 3.49B 2.65B 2.44B 2.17B 1.94B 1.09B 0.99B 0.81B 0.66B 0.60B 0.48B 0.44B 0.43B 0.41B 0.36B 0.37B
NVDA costs:rnd 12.91B 8.68B 7.34B 5.27B 3.92B 2.83B 2.38B 1.80B 1.46B 1.33B 1.36B 1.34B 1.15B 1.00B 0.85B 0.91B
NVDA costs:sgna 3.49B 2.65B 2.44B 2.17B 1.94B 1.09B 0.99B 0.81B 0.66B 0.60B 0.48B 0.44B 0.43B 0.41B 0.36B 0.37B
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

2. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to shares_calc for NVDA [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 101.43 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
NVDA revenue 5.26 2.40 1.06 1.03 0.65 0.43 0.46 0.38 0.27 0.22 0.21 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.15
NVDA netincome 2.94 1.17 0.17 0.37 0.17 0.11 0.16 0.12 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.0
NVDA operatingincome 3.28 1.30 0.17 0.38 0.18 0.11 0.15 0.13 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.0
NVDA grossincome 3.95 1.74 0.60 0.67 0.41 0.26 0.28 0.23 0.16 0.13 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05
NVDA interest_income 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NVDA interest_expense 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NVDA shares 1.00 0.98 0.99 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
NVDA shares_calc 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
NVDA costs:ga 0.14 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
NVDA costs:rnd 0.52 0.34 0.29 0.20 0.15 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
NVDA costs:sgna 0.14 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

3. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to revenue for NVDA [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 101.43 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
NVDA revenue 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
NVDA netincome 55.85% 48.85% 16.19% 36.23% 25.98% 25.61% 35.34% 31.37% 24.11% 12.26% 13.48% 10.65% 13.14% 14.53% 7.14% -2.04%
NVDA operatingincome 62.42% 54.12% 15.66% 37.31% 27.18% 26.07% 32.47% 33.05% 27.99% 14.91% 16.21% 12.01% 15.15% 16.22% 7.22% -2.97%
NVDA grossincome 74.99% 72.72% 56.93% 64.93% 62.34% 61.99% 61.21% 59.93% 58.80% 56.11% 55.52% 54.91% 52.02% 51.44% 39.77% 35.38%
NVDA interest_income 1.37% 1.42% 0.99% 0.11% 0.34% 1.63% 1.16% 0.71% 0.78% 0.78% 0.60% 0.41% 0.47% 0.48% 0.54% 0.69%
NVDA interest_expense 0.19% 0.42% 0.97% 0.88% 1.10% 0.48% 0.50% 0.63% 0.84% 0.94% 0.99% 0.25% 0.08% 0.08% 0.09% 0.10%
NVDA shares 19.01% 40.94% 92.94% 9.42% 14.79% 22.34% 5.19% 6.17% 7.83% 10.84% 11.80% 14.24% 14.47% 15.10% 16.23% 16.52%
NVDA shares_calc 19.01% 41.71% 94.21% 96.91% 153.76% 234.84% 216.37% 260.11% 363.86% 445.62% 475.96% 589.70% 599.34% 625.41% 672.37% 684.33%
NVDA costs:ga 2.68% 4.36% 9.05% 8.05% 11.63% 10.01% 8.46% 8.39% 9.59% 12.02% 10.27% 10.56% 10.07% 10.15% 10.20% 11.03%
NVDA costs:rnd 9.90% 14.24% 27.21% 19.57% 23.53% 25.91% 20.28% 18.50% 21.17% 26.57% 29.05% 32.35% 26.80% 25.08% 23.96% 27.32%
NVDA costs:sgna 2.68% 4.36% 9.05% 8.05% 11.63% 10.01% 8.46% 8.39% 9.59% 12.02% 10.27% 10.56% 10.07% 10.15% 10.20% 11.03%
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)


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