NVDA is OVERVALUED SecDiverAI
Median Fair Price 41.86
Confidence: MEDIUM
Fair Price Range 36.73 - 60.58
1 Year Price target: $ 52.87 - $ 59.47
3 Year Price target: $ 84.36 - $ 120.01
Current Market Price: 101.43 as of 2025-04-18
Investment Value of 100 $ invested in NVDA as compared to Market Index: SPY across historical periods[*does not include dividends]
Investment Period $ Value Today(NVDA) $ Value Today(SPY) CAGR vs Market
9 years before $ 3855.88 $ 208.39 50.05% vs SPY:8.5%
5 years before $ 779.07 $ 150.37 50.77% vs SPY:8.5%
3 years before $ 694.71 $ 127.73 90.81% vs SPY:8.5%
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We have 4 report results for ticker: NVDA - NVIDIA Corporation, also organized by 4 group tags below ... Bargain Finder: Related Companies Portfolio Health: Related Companies

Business Checklist for NVDA from SecDiver AI beta Free for Limited Time

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Red Flags Identified


6

Total Checks Done


29

Wall Street Drivers beta

📊 Professional Investors(wallstreet) pay a lot of heed at these numbers, long term history matters - specially 9+ year trends
Score 9.0 / 10.0

  • revenue cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['33.27 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which grow >= 5% YoY, better than GDP growth of >= 2-3%
  • cashflows cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['42.02 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business which generate cashflows >= 5% YoY, for some industries like finance specially Banks this might be lower/red and its OK for them
  • shares outstanding cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['1.04 is less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: As a business owner equity is important, We want less dilution over years OR it should reduce so our share of business increases with time, less than 2% is ideal, >=10% is potentially bad be careful
  • debt cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['22.46 is NOT less than equal to 2']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business with lower debt growth
  • equity cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['28.63 is greater than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer growing Business having shareholder equity growth >= 5% YoY
  • leverage average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['0.3 is less than equal to 5', '0.3 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business which can pay their debts in less than 5 years using cashflows, for some industries like finance specially Banks this might be lower/red and its OK for them
  • roe_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['99.14 is greater than equal to 10']
  • mental_model: Good Business have return on equity >= 10%
  • roce_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['73.88 is greater than equal to 15']
  • mental_model: Good Business have return on capital >= 15%
  • roic_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['233.02 is greater than equal to 15']
  • mental_model: Good Business have return on invested capital >= 15%

Business Durability beta

🏰 Quality companies with moats show higher or stable trends, long term trends matters, Consistency is the Key
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • margin cashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.45 wrt mean ratio: 0.296']
  • cash average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 6419333333.33 wrt mean ratio: 2694826461.538']
  • mental_model: We want stability on cash growth
  • roa_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 59.5 wrt mean ratio: 28.491']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on assets
  • roe_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 99.14 wrt mean ratio: 45.294']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on equity
  • roce_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 73.88 wrt mean ratio: 34.973']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on capital employed
  • roic_cashflow::operating average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 233.02 wrt mean ratio: 135.962']
  • mental_model: We want stability on increasing return on invested capital

Business Trends last 3 years beta

Score 2.0 / 10.0

  • receivables running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is higher, last 3 year ratio: 0.17 wrt mean ratio: 0.128']
  • mental_model: receivables should always grow less with revenues otherwise there might be some payment/collection issues, Watch out
  • inventory running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.09 wrt mean ratio: 0.102']
  • mental_model: inventory should always grow in relation with revenues, Inventory build can be positive depending on the industry cycle, but mostly it could be a CON as working capital is tied up, Be Careful
  • payables running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.05 wrt mean ratio: 0.064']
  • mental_model: the more this is the better, nothing bad about it.
  • cash running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.09 wrt mean ratio: 0.212']
  • mental_model: cash trend should be similar or greater to revenue, if company is heavily reinvesting it might be OK, but do check

Profits Matter beta

💰 Companies needs to have positive profits to reward its shareholders in the long term
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • positive cashflows profits average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['32606666666.67 is greater than equal to 0']
  • mental_model: We want to see positive cashflows profits for last 3 years, Profits determine Stock prices in the long term

Capital Allocation beta

🧠 Remember: Shareholders only gets rewarded if management does prudent capital allocation decisions
Score 0.0 / 10.0

  • cashToRevenue running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.09 wrt mean ratio: 0.212']
  • cashToEquity running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.13 wrt mean ratio: 0.233']

Business Performance beta

Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • Operating Leverage Cashflow cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [1.26] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 42.02, value_2: 33.27']
  • debt cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [0.68] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 1, value_1: 22.46, value_2: 33.27']
  • cash cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [0.95] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 0.9, value_1: 27.33, value_2: 28.63']
  • debt-equity-cagr cagr for last 9 years
  • insight: ['Ratio is [0.78] for last 9 year ratio, threshold 1, value_1: 22.46, value_2: 28.63']
  • mental_model: We want debt to grow less than equity

Balance Sheet Quality beta

📈 Quality companies can withstand darkest hours, strong balance sheet is the key
Score 10.0 / 10.0

  • debtToCashflow running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.3 wrt mean ratio: 0.85']
  • debtToEquity running_sum for last 3 years
  • insight: ['trend is lower, last 3 year ratio: 0.2 wrt mean ratio: 0.268']
  • leverage average for last 3 years
  • insight: ['0.3 is less than equal to 5']
  • mental_model: We prefer Business which can pay their debts in less than 5 years

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We do NOT feel in CONTROL in the markets. Do we know why?

1. Showing BALANCE_SUMMARY report for NVDA [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 101.43 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
NVDA StockMarketPrice 112.69 134.29 49.51 14.60 29.36 13.02 5.86 3.31 4.79 2.63 0.80 0.48 0.38 0.28 0.32 0.35
NVDA revenue 130.50B 60.92B 26.97B 26.91B 16.68B 10.92B 11.72B 9.71B 6.91B 5.01B 4.68B 4.13B 4.28B 4.00B 3.54B 3.33B
NVDA assets 111.60B 65.73B 41.18B 44.19B 28.79B 17.32B 13.29B 11.24B 9.84B 7.37B 7.20B 7.25B 6.41B 5.55B 4.50B 0.0
NVDA cash 8.59B 7.28B 3.39B 1.99B 0.85B 10.90B 0.78B 4.00B 1.77B 0.60B 0.50B 1.15B 0.73B 0.67B 0.67B 0.0
NVDA cashflow::operating 64.09B 28.09B 5.64B 9.11B 5.82B 4.76B 3.74B 3.50B 1.67B 1.18B 0.91B 0.84B 0.82B 0.91B 0.68B 0.0
NVDA equity 79.33B 42.98B 22.10B 26.61B 16.89B 12.20B 9.34B 7.47B 5.76B 4.47B 4.42B 4.46B 4.83B 4.15B 3.18B 0.0
NVDA debt 8.46B 9.71B 10.95B 10.95B 6.96B 1.99B 1.99B 1.99B 1.99B 1.99B 1.40B 1.37B 0.02B 0.02B 0.02B 0.0
NVDA shares 24.80B 24.94B 25.07B 2.54B 2.47B 2.44B 0.61B 0.60B 0.54B 0.54B 0.55B 0.59B 0.62B 0.60B 0.58B 0.55B
NVDA shares_calc 24.80B 25.41B 25.41B 26.08B 25.64B 25.64B 25.35B 25.27B 25.14B 22.33B 22.28B 24.36B 25.65B 25.00B 23.82B 22.76B
NVDA inventory 10.08B 5.28B 5.16B 2.60B 1.83B 0.98B 1.57B 0.80B 0.79B 0.42B 0.48B 0.39B 0.42B 0.34B 0.35B 0.0
NVDA payables 6.31B 2.70B 1.19B 1.78B 1.20B 0.69B 0.51B 0.60B 0.48B 0.30B 0.29B 0.32B 0.36B 0.34B 0.29B 0.0
NVDA receivables 23.07B 10.00B 3.83B 4.65B 2.43B 1.66B 1.42B 1.26B 0.83B 0.51B 0.47B 0.43B 0.45B 0.34B 0.35B 0.0
NVDA roa_cfo 97.51% 68.21% 12.77% 31.63% 33.62% 35.82% 33.30% 35.59% 22.69% 16.32% 12.50% 13.02% 14.84% 20.22% 0.0 0.0
NVDA roe_cfo 149.12% 127.10% 21.20% 53.92% 47.71% 50.96% 50.10% 60.78% 37.41% 26.60% 20.33% 17.30% 19.88% 28.58% 0.0 0.0
NVDA roce_cfo 121.64% 84.98% 15.02% 38.18% 41.01% 42.02% 39.58% 45.18% 25.87% 20.20% 15.54% 17.23% 19.78% 28.37% 0.0 0.0
NVDA roic_cfo 388.51% 242.16% 68.38% 175.05% 160.70% 122.33% 152.03% 211.47% 152.97% 96.26% 84.48% 76.36% 91.43% 93.05% 69.17% inf
NVDA goodwill 5.19B 4.43B 4.37B 4.35B 4.19B 0.62B 0.62B 0.62B 0.62B 0.62B 0.62B 0.64B 0.64B 0.64B 0.37B 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

2. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to shares_calc for NVDA [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 101.43 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
NVDA StockMarketPrice
NVDA revenue 5.26 2.40 1.06 1.03 0.65 0.43 0.46 0.38 0.27 0.22 0.21 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.15
NVDA assets 4.50 2.59 1.62 1.69 1.12 0.68 0.52 0.44 0.39 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.25 0.22 0.19 0.0
NVDA cash 0.35 0.29 0.13 0.08 0.03 0.42 0.03 0.16 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.0
NVDA cashflow::operating 2.58 1.11 0.22 0.35 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.14 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.0
NVDA equity 3.20 1.69 0.87 1.02 0.66 0.48 0.37 0.30 0.23 0.20 0.20 0.18 0.19 0.17 0.13 0.0
NVDA debt 0.34 0.38 0.43 0.42 0.27 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.06 0.06 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NVDA shares 1.00 0.98 0.99 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
NVDA shares_calc 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
NVDA inventory 0.41 0.21 0.20 0.10 0.07 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.0
NVDA payables 0.25 0.11 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.0
NVDA receivables 0.93 0.39 0.15 0.18 0.09 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.0
NVDA goodwill 0.21 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

3. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to revenue for NVDA [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 101.43 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
NVDA StockMarketPrice
NVDA revenue 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
NVDA assets 85.52% 107.89% 152.67% 164.18% 172.66% 158.59% 113.45% 115.72% 142.42% 147.11% 153.81% 175.56% 149.81% 138.90% 126.87% 0.0
NVDA cash 6.58% 11.95% 12.56% 7.39% 5.08% 99.80% 6.67% 41.20% 25.56% 11.90% 10.62% 27.88% 17.12% 16.71% 18.78% 0.0
NVDA cashflow::operating 49.11% 46.11% 20.91% 33.84% 34.91% 43.61% 31.95% 36.05% 24.20% 23.45% 19.35% 20.22% 19.26% 22.74% 19.07% 0.0
NVDA equity 60.79% 70.55% 81.93% 98.88% 101.31% 111.78% 79.74% 76.91% 83.39% 89.20% 94.36% 107.90% 112.79% 103.70% 89.79% 0.0
NVDA debt 6.49% 15.94% 40.61% 40.67% 41.76% 18.24% 16.97% 20.43% 28.78% 39.78% 29.87% 33.26% 0.44% 0.54% 0.66% 0.0
NVDA shares 19.01% 40.94% 92.94% 9.42% 14.79% 22.34% 5.19% 6.17% 7.83% 10.84% 11.80% 14.24% 14.47% 15.10% 16.23% 16.52%
NVDA shares_calc 19.01% 41.71% 94.21% 96.91% 153.76% 234.84% 216.37% 260.11% 363.86% 445.62% 475.96% 589.70% 599.34% 625.41% 672.37% 684.33%
NVDA inventory 7.72% 8.67% 19.13% 9.68% 10.95% 8.97% 13.44% 8.19% 11.49% 8.34% 10.32% 9.39% 9.81% 8.51% 9.75% 0.0
NVDA payables 4.84% 4.43% 4.42% 6.62% 7.20% 6.29% 4.36% 6.14% 7.02% 5.91% 6.26% 7.85% 8.33% 8.38% 8.08% 0.0
NVDA receivables 17.67% 16.41% 14.19% 17.28% 14.57% 15.18% 12.15% 13.02% 11.95% 10.08% 10.12% 10.32% 10.61% 8.41% 9.84% 0.0
NVDA goodwill 3.98% 7.27% 16.21% 16.16% 25.15% 5.66% 5.27% 6.36% 8.94% 12.34% 13.20% 15.57% 14.98% 16.03% 10.44% 0.0
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)

4. Vertical Data, ratio wrt to assets for NVDA [show/hide charts] Current Market Price: 101.43 as of 2025-04-18
T means Trillions, B means Billions, M means Millions, all values are in USD(or company filed currency) if not specified as percent/number in the Entry column
Disclaimer: Data is provided as is, please do your due diligence before making any investments, Markets can be very volatile!
Ticker Entry 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
NVDA StockMarketPrice
NVDA revenue 116.93% 92.69% 65.50% 60.91% 57.92% 63.06% 88.14% 86.42% 70.22% 67.98% 65.02% 56.96% 66.75% 72.00% 78.82%
NVDA assets 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
NVDA cash 7.70% 11.08% 8.23% 4.50% 2.94% 62.93% 5.88% 35.60% 17.95% 8.09% 6.90% 15.88% 11.43% 12.03% 14.80%
NVDA cashflow::operating 57.43% 42.74% 13.70% 20.61% 20.22% 27.50% 28.16% 31.15% 16.99% 15.94% 12.58% 11.52% 12.85% 16.37% 15.03%
NVDA equity 71.08% 65.39% 53.67% 60.23% 58.67% 70.48% 70.28% 66.46% 58.55% 60.64% 61.35% 61.46% 75.29% 74.66% 70.77%
NVDA debt 7.58% 14.77% 26.60% 24.77% 24.18% 11.50% 14.96% 17.66% 20.21% 27.04% 19.42% 18.95% 0.30% 0.39% 0.52%
NVDA shares 22.23% 37.94% 60.88% 5.74% 8.57% 14.09% 4.57% 5.33% 5.50% 7.37% 7.67% 8.11% 9.66% 10.87% 12.80%
NVDA shares_calc 22.23% 38.66% 61.71% 59.03% 89.05% 148.08% 190.71% 224.77% 255.49% 302.93% 309.45% 335.90% 400.06% 450.28% 529.99%
NVDA inventory 9.03% 8.04% 12.53% 5.90% 6.34% 5.65% 11.85% 7.08% 8.07% 5.67% 6.71% 5.35% 6.55% 6.13% 7.69%
NVDA payables 5.65% 4.11% 2.90% 4.04% 4.17% 3.97% 3.84% 5.30% 4.93% 4.02% 4.07% 4.47% 5.56% 6.03% 6.37%
NVDA receivables 20.67% 15.21% 9.29% 10.52% 8.44% 9.57% 10.71% 11.25% 8.39% 6.85% 6.58% 5.88% 7.08% 6.05% 7.76%
NVDA goodwill 4.65% 6.74% 10.62% 9.84% 14.56% 3.57% 4.65% 5.50% 6.28% 8.39% 8.58% 8.87% 10.00% 11.54% 8.23%
General notes:
Caution:: 0 value in revenue means we do not have data for the year for the ticker
0 value most likely means we had a data issue and could not find the field value in the particular year
StockMarketPrice is the price of the Stock in December first week for the year mentioned(typically)


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